NBA Analyst predicts doomsday Durant scenario for Rockets

When the Houston Rockets acquired Kevin Durant, they surely were hoping for more than a one-year rental. One NBA analyst is predicting that exact doomsday scenario for the team.

That would be Bleacher Report's Andy Bailey. He doesn't expect the Rockets and Durant to agree on terms for an extension. He thinks the Rockets should be thinking "more long-term" rather than offering Durant a lucrative deal. If that logic holds true, it raises a question:

Why trade for Durant at all?

Rockets are firmly in win-now mode

On a related note, I don't think the logic holds.

The Rockets traded Jalen Green and the 10th overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft for Durant. It was widely regarded as a discounted rate. Few serious analysts have questioned whether it was a cost worth paying for the generational scorer.

Fair - but it's not nothing. For all of his warts, Green was still the leading scorer on a 52-win team in the Western Conference. If he ever manages to iron out his efficiency problems, he can be an All-Star. Giving up on him was the right call, but that doesn't mean his career is sunk.

The 10th pick is not an asset to sneeze at either. The Suns selected Khaman Maluach with that pick. The jury is out on him. Maluach is raw, but he has exceptional athletic gifts. With his length and mobility, he could be an elite defensive anchor in the NBA.

He could also be too unpolished to ever be a viable starter. The point is this: between Green, Maluach and a bundle of second-round picks, the Rockets gave enough. Imagine if you bought a house at an incredible price because the seller was desperate to move for a personal reason. You still paid a lot of money for that house, and you'll still want to live in it.

Similarly, the Rockets will want Durant around for more than one year.

Rockets must reach an extension with Durant

That's not to say the situation isn't complicated.

The Rockets still have Tari Eason and Amen Thompson from their young core to pay. Letting either walk in favor of Durant would only be defensible with more trades. Unless Houston is acquiring Giannis Antetokounmpo, they should be in the business of keeping every young player they believe in.

That'll be difficult with Durant on the books. He'll need to take something team-friendly at least. So, the Rockets are in a precarious situation.

They still need to find a way to retain Durant. Unless they win the championship this year, the deal will be rightfully viewed as a failure if he's a one-year rental. The Rockets intended to open a 2-3 year title window by acquiring Durant:

A one-year rental likely won't suffice.