NBA insider opens door to Fred VanVleet return Rockets fans thought was impossible

NBA Insider Marc Stein lobbed the kind of rhetorical question that usually doubles as a soft “don’t get your hopes up”… and then didn’t pour cold water on it.

“Is VanVleet really out for the season? Not necessarily,” Stein wrote in his weekly newsletter, after speaking with Rockets' personnel in Dallas, during their game against the Mavs. According to the report, the Rockets are not guaranteeing a return in the 2025-26 season, but "they also aren’t completely ruling it out, either.”

"Word is VanVleet is working as hard as possible in his rehab from the injury to at least put a late-season return on the table."

That’s not a guarantee by any means, but it’s the best possible answer for Houston's problems.

Fred VanVleet is on record-breaking ACL return target

The modern baseline for ACL returns in a pivot-heavy sport is still the boring answer: time. Averages hover around the nine to 12 month range, and with best practices advocating for a minimum of nine months for a safe full recovery.

That safety net timeframe was the reasoning behind the expectations that VanVleet would be out for the entirety of the 2025-26 season. If Stein's report becomes a reality, the Rockets' PG would obliterate that expectation. Albeit an all-time outlier, FVV wouldn't be alone in such a speedy comeback. Let's explore the other deviations.

Bonzi Wells tore his ACL on April 6, 2001 and was back in an NBA game on October 30, a total of 207 days (six months, 24 days). That’s the record-book type of exception.

Kendrick Perkins went down in Game 6 of the 2010 Finals and returned January 25, 2011, just under seven months, which felt like science fiction at the time, especially for a 270-pound big man known for brute-force pounding in the paint.

And then there’s the “not technically NBA, but holy-grail” file: Kyle Lowry tearing his ACL at Villanova in late August 2004, returning to full practice in late December, and debuting on New Year’s Eve. That's roughly four months post-surgery. It’s not NBA game action, but it’s the kind of recovery that proves Houston's dream scenario is possible.

VanVleet had surgery on September 25, 2025. A late-March return puts him right on that six-month timing that can rival Wells for the all-time NBA record. Yes, it'd be way faster than most fans would even allow themselves to imagine, but more than suitable for FVV, following on the lightning-quick footsteps of his Toronto mentor Lowry.

Fred VanVleet return is a survival necessity for Rockets

Houston’s offense has been a contradiction that keeps cashing checks: fourth in offensive rating (ORTG) while playing 27th in pace, living in the paint (fourth in points in the paint) while near the bottom of the league in 3-point makes. Its secret weapon: treating offensive rebounds like a renewable energy source, with a 40.8 ORB%, which would break the NBA record.

That formula is legit. It’s also hiding the one thing that tends to get you eliminated in April: the late-game struggles you can’t out-rebound your way out of.

The Rockets are 29th in turnovers overall and — more importantly — 29th in turnovers in the clutch. That’s not a young team's growing pains. That’s “you are paying compound interest on every tight possession” for your lack of a true floor general. While the young guns are holding down the fort most of the time, Houston needs steadier closing hands.

When we look past the overall season numbers and compare them with Houston's clutch performance, we see how much of a hole they're in.

Bottom third in clutch plus-minus, despite being second best in overall net rating. 19th in clutch ORTG, a steep fall from their fourth overall offense. And then their offensive woes bump their defense off of a cliff, falling from sixth DRTG overall to a dreadful 24th in clutch.

That’s the whole case for VanVleet's record-breaking recovery, even if he won't be peak FVV in his comeback.

Because Houston doesn’t need him to show up doing stepbacks like it’s the 2019 NBA Finals. They need him to reduce the chaos. To turn “we got two shots and a prayer” possessions into “we ran the action, got to the second option, and didn’t donate a live-ball turnover.” To be the floor general who makes the right reads when the game gets tight and the pressure gets high.

You can win a lot of regular-season games by smashing the paint, cleaning the glass, and defending like maniacs. But when the margins shrink, when the pace gets slower, when the defenses get to focus on pushing your offensive engine past its limit, you need a steady hand at the wheel to survive. The Rockets’ current weakness isn’t shooting variance, nor is it a lack of offensive weapons. It is organization.

Stein’s “not necessarily out for the season” isn’t just a hope for a bonus to a well-oiled machine. It’s the possibility that Houston gets the one thing its clutch profile is begging for: a veteran hand on the steering wheel before the regular season smooth highway turns into the rough playoff road.