NBA Mock Draft 4.0: Rockets get insane luck, Sixers get Flagg

The Houston Rockets have said many prayers to the Lottery Gods.

They don't always answer - at least, not as you'd hoped. Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta infamously "prayed for Victor". Instead, he got an Amen.

Every month, I spin the Tankathon wheel five times to show my piety*. This month, the Gods answered. The Rockets' pick via the Suns leaped 10 spots to secure the second overall pick.

Can you imagine?

*Note: the lottery simulation was ran on Saturday, March 8. This piece has been published on Wednesday, March 12. If the odds or non-lottery order have changed in that time, please note that it takes more than one day to write this article with any care.

1. Philadelphia 76ers - Cooper Flagg (Duke)

The Sixers should be saying some prayers as well. If this pick lands outside the top 6, it's heading for the Thunder.

This would be a best case scenario. The Sixers tanked for several years to land Joel Embiid. His career seems to be in peril. Here's hoping for his health, but this would be serendipitous in the interim.

The Sixers would not have done any tanking to land the most highly touted American NBA prospect since Zion Williamson.

2. Houston Rockets - Dylan Harper (Rutgers)

Don't overthink it.

Still invested in Jalen Green as a lead guard? Sure. Holding out hope that Amen Thompson is a point guard? That's great. Big Reed Sheppard fan?

OK: You take Harper anyway and figure the rest out later.

Green hasn't given the Rockets enough to draft around him. Thompson can get on-ball reps as a wing and co-exist with Harper. This is a 6'5" pick-and-roll maestro who can score from all three levels.

Harper could wind up looking like the Rockets' franchise player.

3. Utah Jazz - Ace Bailey (Rutgers)

It feels like the order at the top of the draft is crystallizing. After some controversy in this range, Bailey is pulling ahead of prospects like VJ Edgecombe and Kasparas Jakucionis.

Questions about Bailey's shot selection persist. Still, he's flashed potential in some other areas that mitigate those concerns. Once you understand that Bailey could be a high-end defender in the NBA, he becomes a more enticing prospect.

More broadly, he's got the highest upside on the board. The Jazz are in no position to consider anything else - Bailey is the pick here.

4. Brooklyn Nets - VJ Edgecombe (Baylor)

Bailey has created separation, but don't make the mistake of assuming Edgecombe's stock has lowered. The top-4 in this class would each have had a strong case to be picked first in the 2023 draft.

(You know, the one where the Rockets' pick actually did make a huge leap).

Edgecombe is an outlier athlete in terms of burst, speed, vertical, and lateral mobility. He's a suffocating point-of-attack defender and three-level scorer who's playmaking has been on the uptick lately. The Nets are getting a star that could jumpstart their rebuild with the fourth pick.

5. Washington Wizards - Kasparas Jakucionis (Illinois)

Some mocks have Jakucinonis slipping further than this, but I remain bullish on his upside.

Sure, there are valid concerns about his ability to score in the NBA. Jakucionis' limited downhill athleticism may (read: will) impact his rim pressure, but his fluid shot mechanics suggest that he can shoot better than 33.1% from deep once he settles into an NBA offense.

He's not a surefire prospect. Still, a Wizards team in dire need of a lead guard should be lucky to grab him. If Jakucionis can't realize his potential in the nation's capital, they should have another crack or two at the lottery before they're done rebuilding.

6. Charlotte Hornets - Khaman Maluach (Duke)

Maluach is perhaps the draft's biggest boom-or-bust prospect. The stats don't necessarily bear out an image of him that we have in our minds.

He should be the best rim protector in this class, but Maluach's 6.1% Block Percentage is pedestrian. There's allegedly hope that he'll space the floor, so why is he shooting 15.4% on 0.4 threes per contest?

Put the stats away for a moment. Maluach moves his feet with remarkable speed for someone with a 9'8" standing reach. His upside is too high to pass on, especially for a Hornets team that's distinctly ready to move on from Mark Williams.

7. New Orleans Pelicans - Tre Johnson (Texas)

The Pelicans are an organization in flux. Their game of "will they, won't they" with Zion Williamson has persisted for so long that it's gotten toxic. It doesn't matter:

Johnson is the best selection for them here anyway.

If they trade Williamson, they're taking the player with the highest upside. Johnson relies too heavily on tough shots to get his offense, but dear God, can he hit some tough shots. What do you know?

That's exactly the type of player to compliment a rim pressure machine like Williamson.

8. Toronto Raptors - Kon Knueppel (Duke)

This will be a controversial choice. To be sure, there are more impressive athletes left than Knueppel on the board.

It's just unclear whether they'll be better basketball players.

Knueppel is hitting 39.5% of his threes for Duke this season. He's a competitive defender who's got plus positional size (6'7") at the 2. Moreover, he's a great fit for a Raptors team that lacks long-term shooting outside of Gradey Dick. With most of the best prospects left potentially clashing with Scottie Barnes, this feels like the right choice.

9. Chicago Bulls - Jeremiah Fears (Oklahoma)

There's a temptation to link the Bulls to Fears because he's the hometown kid. That's not (exclusively) what's happening here. Fears has more potential than anyone left on the board, and he arguably has more potential than the last two prospects named in this piece.

A penchant for turning the ball over and a shaky jumpshot have hurt his draft stock. At one time, this was a slightly low placement for Fears. Now, it's considerably higher than consensus.

Squint, and you can see a star NBA guard. Fears' athleticism will help him get to the rim, and he's got the floor vision to find the open man when the defense collapses. The Bulls should be starting from scratch, and if they are, Fears could be the right lead guard to build around.

10. San Antonio Spurs - Asa Newell (Georgia)

Newell isn't elite in any one category. That's kept him out of the high lottery in this mock, but he'd be a perfect compliment to Victor Wemanyama:

He's good at just about everything.

Newell is a 6'11" combo big who can guard across positions and offers some floor spacing. He may never be an NBA star, but he does look the part of a quality starter. The Spurs are beginning to establish a pecking order, so adding a high-end role player makes sense with the 10th pick.

11. Portland Trail Blazers - Collin Murray-Boyles (South Carolina)

Murray-Boyles isn't for everyone. His inability to shoot makes him a questionable prospect as a smaller forward. He's still arguably the best man left on the board in this spot. The Blazers could go pure Best Player Available mode and select Derek Queen, but Murray-Boyles is on his level, and Portland just selected Donovan Clingan.

Besides, there's a lot to like about Murray-Boyles. He could be a legitimate 1-through-5 defender in the NBA. Murray-Boyles is also among the most talented inside scorers in this draft. His fit in Portland - or almost where - is suspect, but he may be too talented for that to matter.

12. Orlando Magic - Liam McNeeley (UConn)

The Houston Ro - sorry, force of habit.

This is normally where your favorite team selects. McNeeley is regularly mocked to the Rockets as well. Given their stroke of luck in this mock, the Magic are taking their place.

McNeeley would be a strong addition to the Rockets East. Like Houston, Orlando struggles from beyond the arch. McNeeley has cooled off from long-range since getting injured, but he's clearly a strong shooter. Throw in his feel for the game and defensive effort, and he should quickly endear himself to Disneyworld.

13. Dallas Mavericks - Ben Saraf (Ratiopharm Ulm)

Does it matter what the Mavericks do?

The fanbase is going to mutiny any day now. It doesn't seem that they're over the Luka Doncic trade. Who could blame them?

Perhaps selecting another plus-size international playmaker could soften the blow. Saraf isn't likely to be Doncic - nobody is - but he is an impressive 6'5" ball-handler who can create shots for himself and his teammates.

If he hits, the Mavericks could trade him for someone six years older than him with no apparent justification.

14. Atlanta Hawks (via Sacramento Kings) - Derek Queen (Maryland)

This would be a significant slip for Queen. Some of his believers would be outraged. To be sure, Queen's ability to pass and score from the low block belies potential stardom.

That said, he's a non-shooting big with defensive concerns. Queen may slip. Even the Hawks may pass on him with the considerably more modernized Onyeka Onkongwu on the roster.

Here, they're not letting him slip any further. This is a pure talent grab for Atlanta. Queen isn't an obvious fit with their roster, but given their years-long mediocrity spell, they should be in Best Player Available mode.

15. San Antonio Spurs (via Atlanta Hawks) - Egor Demin (BYU)

The Spurs have several picks in this draft. They have an opportunity to diversify their portfolio. That's what they're doing so far in this draft. Newell has a relatively low ceiling for a 10th pick - he's a floor guy. So, they should go the opposite way five picks later.

Demin is a 6'9" guard/forward with outstanding floor vision and a functional handle. He isn't much else. His scoring limitations could prove fatal in the NBA, but if he can put it together, he could make this selection look silly in a few years:

He could make the Spurs realize they should have picked him 10th.

16. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Miami Heat) - Noa Essengue (Ratiopharm Ulm)

Essengue is one of the best defenders in this class. At 6'9", he's got the quickness to guard across positions, and the instincts to disrupt offenses and make plays on that end.

Offensively, he's raw. Essengue can score with timely cuts and hustle plays, but he doesn't create for himself. It's unclear whether he'll ever develop that skillset at the NBA level. Luckily, the Thunder have ample creation. They should be satisfied to stockpile an already-elite defensive roster with the 16th pick.

17. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Los Angeles Clippers) - Jase Richardson (Michigan State)

They should be happy to add an excellent movement shooter too.

At 6'3" with limited playmaking, Richardson projects as an undersized combo guard. He can be a secondary ball-handler in the NBA, but he won't be a high usage floor general.

That's fine. The second generation (soon to be) NBAer is connecting on 38.8% of his triples on a difficult shot diet. There is always room for a knockdown shooter in an NBA rotation. Even if Richardson is little more than a shooting specialist, he should be a high value selection at 17th.

18. Utah Jazz (via Minnesota Timberwolves) - Nolan Traore (Saint Quentin)

The Jazz are trying to figure out what they have in Keyonte George. He's quite talented, and capable of massive offensive nights. Can he be consistently efficient enough to depend on?

Who knows? In the meantime, why not add a completely different guard? Traore looks to set up teammates before he calls his own number. That disparate skillset could make them a good fit in the backcourt eventually, but it's a moot point for the Jazz. They should be seeking the best player available, and at 18, that's Traore.

19. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Detroit Pistons) - Will Riley (Illinois)

In some ways, it's hard to understand why Riley isn't a lottery prospect. This is a 6'8" off-guard with prodigious shot-making abilities. What's not to love?

Well, Riley is prone to defensive lapses. His 2.3 assists per game don't engender confidence in his playmaking. Riley's 32.0% shooting from long range is problematic as well.

This is more of a tape-based prospect than a stat sheet guy. Riley is a gifted basketball player. With the 19th pick, the Wolves should be happy to see if those gifts translate into production.

20. Miami Heat (via Golden State Warriors) - Rasheer Fleming (Saint Joseph's)

The Heat have a type. They tend to like prospects that are likely to be productive regardless of their ceiling. Penda fits the bill.

He won't be an offensive hub in the NBA. That's fine. Fleming is a 6'9" wing who can defend, and he's shooting 41.8% from long-range. He's going to be a good NBA player.

This is a franchise, in theory, with a murky future. In practice, Miami will likely continue to draft solid pieces until they're able to attract a star. It's the Heat way, and it's been working for a long time.

21. Indiana Pacers - Noah Penda (Le Mans)

We've reached the high floor, low ceiling portion of the draft. Penda's profile is remarkably similar to Fleming's. He's a less consistent three-point shooter, but he does have stronger auxiliary skills. Penda is a strong connective passer who's garnering comparisons to Nic Batum.

The Pacers have been searching for an answer at the 4. They've shown little trust in Jarace Walker, and Obi Toppin is a quality reserve. They might as well throw Penda into the mix and see who comes out on top.

22. Brooklyn Nets (via Milwaukee Bucks) - Danny Wolf (Michigan)

There is regular noise around the Nets' intentions. They seem to be in the infancy stages of a rebuild, but some expect them to trade whatever they can for the next available star.

Let's assume they're building from the ground up. Wolf is the pick. He's one of the most intriguing players in this draft. Wolf is a combo big who can shoot the lights out and make plays for teammates with his passing skills.

Is he athletic enough to star in the NBA? That's the question. If Wolf isn't a featured weapon, he may not have the secondary skills to play much. The Nets should look to roll the dice here. Players with Wolf's potential don't shake loose this late into the draft very often.

23. Brooklyn Nets (via Houston Rockets) - Boogie Fland (Arkansas)

Let's go the other way. If the Nets want to win soon, they should focus on acquiring ready-made contributors. With these consecutive picks, they improve their flexibility to head in either direction.

Fland shouldn't be an NBA star. His 6'2" size makes it difficult for him to score around the basket. Still, he's an efficient spot-up shooter with a high feel for the game. Fland should be a game managing floor general who contributes to winning.

Even if they're rebuilding, adding him to a young core that suddenly features Edgecombe and Wolf makes sense.

24. Washington Wizards (via Memphis Grizzlies) - Hugo Gonzalez (Real Madrid)

The Wizards are walking away from this draft with a lot of upside. Jakucionis has star potential, and to a lesser extent, Gonzalez does too.

He's a 6'7" wing with a strong athletic profile. Gonzalez has been turning a corner as a shooter lately as well. Playing on a professional squad has limited his opportunities - scout don't know if he's a primary offensive option - but he's shown enough to easily justify this selection.

25. Brooklyn Nets (via New York Knicks) - Thomas Sorber (Georgetown)

So. Many. Nets. Picks.

What more should they be looking for? Here, they're paying no mind to roster construction. The Nets are selecting Sorber because he was supposed to come off the board roughly five picks ago.

He should be a solid two-way big at the NBA level. Sorber can defend the rim, and he moves his feet relatively quickly at 6'10". He's a lob threat, and he's at least willing to attempt threes. If he starts hitting them, he could be an NBA starter in due time.

26. Orlando Magic (via Denver Nuggets) - Nique Clifford (Colarado State)

This is another prospect whom I'm higher on than consensus. To some extent, I yield to consensus in these mocks - I follow these guys closely, but I won't claim the utmost expertise.

Enough about me. Clifford is a 6'8" wing with the strength to contribute on the glass. He's shooting 39.3% from long-range this year. The Magic need shooting, and they traditionally like size. Clifford is the perfect choice for them in this range.

27. Atlanta Hawks (via Los Angeles Lakers) - Carter Bryant

Once again, we've landed on a 6'8" wing with a versatile skillset.

Bryant isn't as efficient as Fleming (35.8% from deep this year). He's not as versatile as Penda. Still, he seems more versatile than Fleming, and he's been more efficient than Penda. Bryant is splitting the difference.

His odds of NBA stardom are low, but nobody expects a star with the 27th pick. If the Hawks can land a solid rotation wing in this spot, they'll be happy.

28. Boston Celtics - Dink Pate (Mexico City)

Nobody expects a star with the 28th pick either. When you're the Celtics, you can afford to roll the dice on a boom-or-bust prospect. Pate is the very picture of boom or bust.

A 6'8" combo guard who scores from all three levels? He's flashed some passing acumen too? Hold on - why isn't this a candidate for the first pick in the draft?

Well, Pate is a wildly inconsistent shooter and playmaker. There's a world where he's not an NBA-caliber player. That's fine - why should the Celtics care if they burn the 28th pick?

29. Los Angeles Clippers (via Oklahoma City Thunder) - Johni Broome (Auburn)

The Clippers are in a vastly different position. They're only drafting this low due to a pick swap with the Thunder. They could use solid contributors.

Broome's draft stock is hurt by his age. He's already 22, so scouts are questioning his upside. Fair enough.

Still, he can pass, rebound, score inside, and he's shown flashes of floor spacing. The Clippers are picking up a 6'10" combo big with a well-rounded skillset with the second-last pick in the first round.

30. Phoenix Suns (via Cleveland Cavaliers) - Ryan Kalkbrenner (Creighton)

The Suns have bigger questions than who they'll pick with the last pick in the first round of the draft. Questions like: how did we get to a place where we're sending the Rockets a lottery pick while selecting last in the draft?

In the meantime, Kalbrenner will be seen as a reach by some. To be sure, he's typically mocked lower than this due to playing a lower level of competition on Creighton. Phoenix should investigate a big man who could be a dominant rim protector in the NBA who's flashed as much floor spacing potential as Kalkbrenner has.