NBA’s 3-2-1 draft lottery rule made Rockets’ draft stash even scarier

NBA owners have overwhelmingly approved the league’s new “3-2-1” lottery system, which flattens draft odds and punishes the worst teams in the league. Starting with the 2027 draft, the three worst teams will no longer have the best odds at the No. 1 pick. Instead, the best odds will belong to the teams that finish with the fourth through 10th-worst records.

That significantly impacts Houston. Over the next three drafts, the Rockets own multiple valuable first-round picks from other teams, including future selections from the Suns, Nets and Mavericks.

Houston has better odds at a top pick

Under the old lottery system, a bad team without control of its own pick had little reason to bottom out. Those teams often landed in the middle of the lottery anyway. Now, landing in that range becomes much more dangerous. A team that finishes in the mid-lottery could suddenly have a much better chance of handing Houston a top draft pick.

Houston no longer needs those teams to completely bottom out to have a chance at a premium draft pick. In fact, the new system rewards the exact range where flawed, mediocre teams often land. If one of those teams misses the play-in without falling into the bottom three, it would have an 8.1% chance at the No. 1 overall pick. That may not sound massive, but it is a meaningful jump for teams that previously would have had much longer odds.

The Suns and Nets are both projected to be years away from contention, while the Mavericks are a wild card given their tumultuous past couple seasons. None of those teams need to become the worst team in the NBA for Houston to benefit. If they become mediocre, then Houston benefits. 

These changes do not guarantee Houston a future top pick, but they do improve the odds attached to an already impressive collection of future draft capital. Whether the Rockets eventually use those picks or trade them, their asset pool just became more valuable.

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