3 Houston Rockets poised to have a breakout 2024-25 season

It's hard to predict breakout seasons for a team like the Houston Rockets. Why?

Look at this roster. It's exceedingly young. In theory, nearly anyone could break out:

(With all due respect to Jeff Green).

We'll still give it a try. There are some players who we can disqualify from this exercise. For example, Alperen Sengun isn't a breakout candidate - he broke out in 2023-24. If he takes another step, that would be great, but it won't qualify as a breakout season.

Meanwhile, we're too scared to forecast a breakout season for Jalen Green. If anything, we're just hoping for some consistency from him. We're not sure if Cam Whitmore will earn enough minutes to properly "break out".

Now, let's get to the three Rockets we do think could have a breakout season in 2024-25.

Jabari Smith Jr.

If you look closely, Smith Jr. is distinctly trending towards a breakout season.

His progress from his 2022-23 rookie year to last year's sophomore campaign was notable, but it was subtle. The basic counting stats scarcely changed. Smith Jr. averaged 12.8 points and 7.2 rebounds per game as a rookie, and 13.7 points and 8.1 rebounds per game in 2023-24.

Dig a little deeper. Smith Jr.'s True Shooting % (TS%) jumped from 51.4% to 57.1%. That leap was buoyed by a huge jump in three-point percentage from 30.7% to 36.3%.

Moreover, his Box Plus/Minus (BPM) rose from -3.7 to -0.4. That roughly reflects Smith Jr.'s progress between the two seasons - he went from being awful to being fairly good.

If he can make a similar leap in his third year, he'll be great.