3 Teams the Rockets could leapfrog to make the play-in tournament

The Houston Rockets are not going to win the 2024-25 NBA championship.

We have no illusions. We aim to ground our analysis in reality. The Rockets are not title contenders, and they likely won't be for at least another couple of seasons.

During media day, the Rockets spoke relentlessly of playoff basketball. It was music to our ears. The postseason should be the goal for this season.

Yet, you know how the cliche goes - shoot for the stars. If you miss...etc. If the Rockets even won a playoff series this year, they'd shock the world.

A spot in the play-in tournament would qualify as a successful season to us. It's also an achievable goal. Here are three teams the Rockets should look to surpass if they're going to participate in the tournament.

1. Sacramento Kings

In 2023-24, the Kings won 46 games to the Rockets' 41. They had an Offensive Rating (OffRtg) of 116.2 (13th) and a Defensive Rating (DefRTG) of 114.4 (14th), good for a Net Rating (NetRtg) of 1.8 (16th). Like the Rockets and their 18th-ranked 0.9 NetRtg, the Kings were mediocre.

These teams had similar seasons, but their offseasons could not have been more disparate. The Rockets drafted Reed Sheppard, and they'll add Steven Adams to their rotation. For the most part, they're "running it back". By contrast, the Kings added DeMar DeRozan.

In theory, the Kings should get better by injecting a talent of DeRozan's stature. Yet, DeRozan is aging, and as a non-shooter and suspect defender, he's a complicated puzzle piece to add to any squad. Adding him feels like a Hail Mary - If DeRozan doesn't find chemistry with De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, the Kings could regress.

The Rockets could benefit as a result.

2. Los Angeles Clippers

Disregard any stats from the Clippers' 2023-24 season. They lost Paul George this summer, so all bets are off for Los Angeles' other team in 2024-25.

Sure, they added some depth. Derrick Jones Jr., Mo Bamba, and controversial former Rockets guard Kevin Porter Jr. could all contribute. The Clippers are hoping that Jones Jr. can cover George's defensive responsibilities and that Porter Jr. can make up a portion of his offensive contributions.

Those feel like shaky propositions. The notion that Kevin Porter Jr. + Derrick Jones Jr. = Paul George is fraught with falseness. The Clippers suffered a serious loss, and there's no way around it.

Imagine if Kawhi Leonard gets hurt. We'd never wish ill on anyone, but let's be honest - Leonard tends to get hurt. That leaves the Clippers with a heliocentric James Harden surrounded by a platoon of solid role players - and that sounds like a team the Rockets can beat to us.

3. Golden State Warriors

The white whale. The carrot at the end of the stick. For some Rockets fans, surpassing the Warriors in the standings would mean more than qualifying for the play-in tournament.

It won't be easy. The Warriors had the league's 9th-best OffRtg at 116.9. Their defense regressed from its usual levels, but this is still a dangerous team. Like the Rockets, Golden State will be hoping that some of their younger players develop. A Jonathan Kuminga breakout could spell danger for the Rockets.

On the other hand, the Warriors have some candidates to regress. It's already happening to Draymond Green - hence the Warriors' defensive slide. Steph Curry is still lethal, but he wasn't quite as dangerous as usual in 2024-24. Kyle Anderson was a savvy signing who could lessen Green's load, but does he move the needle enough to compensate for so much age-related decline?

Replacing Klay Thompson with Buddy Hield also makes functional sense. That switch should improve the Warriors' spacing, and it's been years since Thompson was a plus defender. Although, it should be said that Thompson was still a better defender than Hield. More significantly, the Warriors' chemistry could take a hit without the second Splash Brother. The Rockets could jump ahead of the Warriors next season:

That would count as their championship, right?