Best NBA prop bets today for Spurs vs. Rockets (Don’t buy Jabari Smith Jr.’s increased prop numbers)

Breaking down the best prop bets for the Spurs-Rockets matchup in the NBA on Tuesday.
Houston Rockets forward Jabari Smith Jr.
Houston Rockets forward Jabari Smith Jr. / Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Rockets are favored at home on Tuesday night against a San Antonio Spurs team that has pulled off a couple of upset wins as of late, beating the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder in their last two games. 

However, Spurs star rookie Victor Wembanyama is questionable for this game, which could throw a wrench into San Antonio’s winning streak. 

I’m looking to the prop market for some of the best bets in this game, as there are a couple of Rockets that I think bettors can take advantage of on Tuesday. Plus, there is a Wembanyama prop that has hit in six straight games that is a must-bet if he plays. 

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Let’s dive into the top props for Rockets-Spurs: 

Spurs vs. Rockets best NBA prop bets 

  • Jabari Smith Jr. UNDER 15.5 points
  • Victor Wembanyama OVER 3.5 blocks
  • Alperen Sengun UNDER 15.5 rebounds and assists

Jabari Smith Jr. UNDER 15.5 points

I’m not buying this recent hot stretch for Jabari Smith Jr. – or his elevated points prop on Tuesday night. 

In two meetings against the Spurs this season, including one that went to overtime, Smith has scored 13 and nine points, failing to clear this total both times. 

While he did have a three-game stretch with 18 or more points, he’s gone UNDER this number in back-to-back contests. On the season, Smith has cleared 15.5 points just 21 times in 55 games. 

San Antonio’s defense is one of the weaker units in the NBA, but Smith doesn’t get the high volume of shots (10.9 field goal attempts per game) for me to trust him here. There’s a reason he’s averaging just 13.4 points per game on the season. 

Victor Wembanyama OVER 3.5 blocks

If he plays, Wemby is a lock to block a bunch of shots in this one. 

The Spurs rookie is leading the NBA in blocks per game this season, and he’s blocked at least four shots in six straight games and seven of his last eight. Over that eight-game stretch, Wemby is averaging a whopping 5.4 blocks per game. 

This is a great matchup for him, as Houston allows 6.0 opponent blocks per game, the sixth most in the NBA. 

Alperen Sengun UNDER 15.5 rebounds and assists

I’m not sold on Alperen Sengun’s rebound and assists prop on Tuesday night, even though he’s averaging 9.1 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game on the season. 

Those numbers are solid, but they still fall short of this projected number. He’s hit the OVER on 15.5 rebounds and assists in one of his two games against the Spurs this season, but the bigger issue for me is how he’s played as of late. 

Dating back to Fev. 9 (Sengun’s last nine games), he’s cleared this prop just two times, averaging 8.0 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game. Since the start of 2024, Sengun has cleared this prop in just eight of his 29 games, averaging 9.0 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game over this stretch. 

He could end up having a big game on the glass if Wembanyama sits, but I still think this prop is a little inflated for him on Tuesday.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.