Heat vs. Rockets NBA expert final score prediction and odds for Friday, April 5 (Trust Houston?)

The Houston Rockets need every win they can get down the stretch of the 2023-24 season to steal the No. 10 seed in the Western Conference from the Golden State Warriors. 

Houston picked up a loss against Golden State on Thursday night, and now it has to play the Miami Heat (who also played Thursday) on the second night of a back-to-back. 

Miami is fighting to avoid the play-in tournament in the Eastern Conference, and if the team finishes the regular season strong it could jump a few teams in a jumbled East. 

Earlier this season, Miami beat Houston by seven at Kaseya Center, but now the Rockets are at home, where they have posted the best against the spread record in the NBA this season. 

Does that lead to a win on Friday?

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Here’s a look at the latest odds and my best bet for this matchup: 

Heat vs. Rockets odds, spread and total

Heat vs. Rockets how to watch

• Date: Friday, April 5
• Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Toyota Center
• How to watch (TV): Bally Sports Sun, AT&T Sportsnet Southwest
• Heat record: 42-34
• Rockets record: 38-38 

Heat vs. Rockets injury reports

Heat injury report

• Not submitted yet

Rockets injury report

• Not submitted yet

Heat vs. Rockets key players to watch

Miami Heat

Terry Rozier: Is Rozier finally finding his mojo for Miami? The veteran guard had one of his best games in a Heat uniform against the New York Knicks on Tuesday night, hitting 8-of-11 shots from beyond the arc and scoring 34 points. Rozier had three games with 20 or more points in a row following the Knicks win, and he entered Thursday’s matchup averaging 21.1 points over his last eight games.

Houston Rockets

Jalen Green: With Alperen Sengun out, Jalen Green is making a leap right in front of our very eyes. Since Feb. 29 (prior to Thursday’s game), Green was averaging 28.0 points on 47.9 shooting from the field. He finished Thursday’s game against Golden State with just 13 points on 4-of-12 shooting. 

Heat vs. Rockets prediction and pick

Houston is in desperation mode now after losing to Golden State on Thursday night.

The Rockets are four games back of Golden State with six to play, essentially needing to win out to have any chance at making the play-in tournament.

The Heat are in a similar spot in the play-in conversation, as they fell to No. 7 in the East with a loss to the Philadelphia 76ers last night.

There are a couple of key trends that favor Houston in this matchup:

• The Rockets are 12-7 ATS as home underdogs
• The Heat are 6-6-2 ATS as road favorites
• The Rockets are 7-4-1 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back
• Miami is 5-5-1 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back

Ime Udoka called out his team after Thursday’s loss, and I imagine they respond tonight with a chance to gain a game on Golden State (if it loses to Dallas). 

I don’t really trust Miami against the spread as a favorite here with Tyler Herro banged up and players potentially sitting out the second night of a back-to-back. Back Houston, the best home team in the NBA against the spread, to keep that going. 

Pick: Rockets +2.5 (-110)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.