On Friday night, the Houston Rockets face off against the defending NBA Champion Milwaukee Bucks. The game features two of the hottest teams in the NBA. The Rockets are riding an NBA-best seven-game win streak, and the Bucks have won 10 of their past 12 games.
WynnBET has the Bucks as nine-point favorites and pegs their over-under at 117.5 points. The Rockets are nine-point underdogs and their over-under for the game is 108.5 points. These are the best bets in the Houston Rockets' matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks.
Houston Rockets v Milwaukee Bucks: Odds & Best Bets
Best Bet #3: Take the points for the Rockets
The Rockets being nine-point underdogs makes sense on paper. The Bucks have the fifth-best net rating (+3.7) in the NBA and over the past 12 games, that figure has ballooned to +10.4.
However, Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed as day-to-day with a thigh contusion and is coming off a dismal 4 for 13 shooting night. If he sits or is limited then suddenly the Rockets' chances of covering the spread become a lot more likely.
Also, the Bucks give up the most 3-pointers per game in the NBA, and the Rockets have shot a scorching 39.9-percent from deep over their seven-game win streak. While WynnBET sees the game as a nine-point spread, FiveThirtyEight does not.
The analytics website doesn’t run a gambling operation but their metrics see this as a 5.5 point spread. The Bucks are still the favorites but trust the nerds. The Rockets have a great chance to cover the spread.
Best Bet #2: Take the over on 108.5 points for the Rockets
The Rockets have scored under 108 points exactly once over their seven-game winning streak. The Bucks may be an excellent defensive team but they play at a top-10 pace. More pace, even for great defenses, means more points.
With Brook Lopez out for an extended period of time, the Bucks are relying on Giannis as their lone credible rim protector. The Rockets get to the free-throw line more than any team in the NBA. If Giannis gets in foul trouble at any point the Rockets have a chance to put up a big points total.
Even with Giannis on the floor, he can’t defend Eric Gordon, Garrison Mathews, and Armoni Brooks at the 3-point line. The Rockets have averaged 118.6 points a game over their seven-game win streak. If the Bucks are going to win, they’re going to need to outscore them.
Best Bet #1: Giannis Antetokounmpo over 11.5 rebounds
Giannis Antetokounmp may be banged up, but if he plays look for him to hit the over on 11.5 rebounds. In 12 of Giannis’ 23 games, he has surpassed the 12 rebound mark. Anytime there’s a greater than 50-percent chance of winning a bet you have to take a closer look.
Factor in that the Rockets are in the bottom ten in offensive and defensive rebounding, while the Bucks are fifth in defensive rebound percentage and 12th in offensive rebound percentage, and this looks like a good night for Giannis on the boards.
A final crucial factor is pace. Remember, more pace means more possessions which means more rebound opportunities. The Rockets play at the fastest pace in the NBA and the Bucks are top-10.
The game tips off at 7:10 Central time, so make sure you get your bets in before tip-off.