What's the most the Houston Rockets should offer Jalen Green?

Houston Rockets fans may have chronic fatigue syndrome.

There's a lot to consider. Who will be this team's core? Which young players will emerge on the other side of an arduous rebuild? Should Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green be extended before next summer?

It's enough to keep you up at night. Questions surrounding Green are particularly bothersome. He hasn't earned anything resembling a max contract, but letting him leave without receiving anything in return would be heartbreaking.

We'll try to sort it all out for you. We'll ask a series of questions to determine what Green's next contract should look like. What is Green supposed to do on the court? How close is he to doing it? What's his overall impact?

Let's get those first two questions out of the way. Green is supposed to score a lot and do it reasonably efficiently. We'll compare him to some of his peers using True Shooting % (TS%). Next, we'll look at his Box Plus/Minus (BPM) relative to the field. In the process, we hope to figure out a reasonable price point for his services.

Perhaps we'll alleviate your headache.

Green needs to improve efficiency

We're also only looking at Green's 2023-24 season. His first two seasons were spent on a tanking team with no structure. Last year was the first year we saw Green in a meaningful NBA environment.

Last year, Green had a TS% of 54.1%. In 2023-24, the league average TS% was 58.0%. So, Green was below average.

Still, this warrants a deeper investigation. We can't solely look at a player's efficiency. We need to consider volume. Generally, a player with higher volume is taking more difficult shots. That's especially likely to impact a lead guard like Green.

Green attempted 16.2 field goals per game. A perusal of guards with comparable combinations of volume and efficiency only yields two instructive points of comparison: Cade Cunningham and Jordan Poole.

In 2023-24, Cunningham attempted 18.8 field goals per game. He had a TS% of 54.6%. Poole attempted 15.2 field goals with a grisly 52.9% TS%. Cunningham just signed an extension with an average annual value of $44.8 million, and Poole is in the middle of a deal that's worth roughly $32 million per season.

Yet, neither of these comparisons is perfect. Cunningham and Green are not similar enough to compare this rigidly. Cunningham has better positional size, which gives him more defensive potential. He's also a significantly better playmaker. For the Rockets to justify handing Green the same contract that Detroit gave Cunningham, he'd have to be a substantially better scorer than Cunningham, not a similar one.

Moreover, the Pistons are in a tough spot. They haven't generally drafted as well as the Rockets. Cunningham is their brightest spot, while it's far easier for the Rockets to imagine a life without Green.

As for Poole - well, he's Jordan Poole. His contract is widely regarded as one of the worst in the NBA. Green is already the better player:

Does that matter?

Otherwise, it's hard to find a good case study using TS%. We need a young player who shoots a high volume of shots who's already on a non-rookie deal. We found them both, and neither provided clarity.

Could BPM help?

Green's impact is underrated

Not especially.

Green's BPM in 2023-24 was -0.5. That puts him in the company of a disparate range of players including OG Anunoby (-0.6), Max Strus (-0.6), and Bobby Portis (-0.8).

There are a few helpful(ish) examples here. Coby White (-0.7) and Devin Vassell (0.0) are both young guards with prominent offensive roles and comparable impact to Green according to BPM.

White just inked a short-term extension worth $12 million. Vassell makes $27 million a season. How do they each compare to Green?

Well, they're both much more efficient. White had a TS% of 57.0% in 2023-24. Vassell was at 57.8%. So, Green shouldn't whiff Vassell money, and even White is a stretch - right?

No. Both White and Vassell are 23, and Green is 21. In NBA years, that's an age gap worth considering. It's also worth noting that White just wrapped up his fifth NBA season, and it was his first year that gave Bulls fans any hope for his future.

By contrast, Vassell has been solid. He's a more reliable shooter than Green, and a better defender. Vassell is well-suited to compliment Victor Wembanyama when he inevitably takes over the world.

NBA teams, to some extent, pay for potential. The Rockets could look at White's career trajectory and see hope for Green. At the same time, nobody wants to max out Coby White.

We owe you an apology. We haven't done much to cure your headache. Let's be honest - Green will either get Cunningham money from the Rockets, or he'll walk. None of this has much real-world application. Still, baking in Green's age and untapped potential, we'd personally be comfortable offering him something close to Devin Vassell money.

Verdict: $27 million a season