The Houston Rockets are approaching an inflection point.
Does this front office want to trade for a superstar? Would they prefer to let their young core develop together? We're not sure. Rafael Stone's plans have been the subject of much speculation, but nobody knows exactly what he's thinking.
Logic dictates that he'll eventually consolidate some assets. A "core seven" is not sustainable. There are five starters on an NBA team. No matter how talented the seventh man out of this core is, his value will be diminished if his opportunities are limited.
Any GM's goal is to have one of the best players in the NBA, a co-star (or two) for him and a well-fitted supporting cast. Luckily, the Rockets are in a prime position to make that vision a reality.
Rockets are in pole position to land star
This is a bold claim. Nobody is denying that. The Rockets are in the best position to trade for a superstar? Really?
Let's clarify. The claim here is not that the Rockets have the best collection of assets in the NBA. The Oklahoma City Thunder would love a word. The Utah Jazz would have something to say, and the San Antonio Spurs belong in the conversation as well.
There are assets, and then there are tradeable assets. The Spurs have the best asset in the NBA. If they were shopping Victor Wembanyama, the Bucks might offer Giannis Antetokoumnpo and picks. Wembanyama's value on the open market would be immeasurable. It would be like trying to sell the Mona Lisa - no amount of money would technically be "enough".
That's exactly why the Spurs will never shop Wembanyama. So, he doesn't qualify as a tradeable asset. Otherwise, the Spurs have some interesting young players, but they're light on blue-chippers. The Rockets have several players who would garner more trade interest than Devin Vassell or Jeremy Sochan.
That's the central thesis of this article. The Rockets don't have the best assets in the NBA. They do have the best collection of assets they'd (likely) be willing to move. If an MVP-caliber player shakes loose, there's nothing - and nobody - in the Rockets' collection that they wouldn't be willing to part with to acquire him.
That brings us to a caveat. If the Thunder were willing to trade Jalen Williams, all bets are off. His trade value is likely comparable to Alperen Sengun's, and it would exceed any other player on the Rockets' roster.
Yet, we're skeptical about the Thunder's willingness to move Williams. He's an optimal fit alongside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Suppose Anthony Edwards demanded a trade. He's more ball-dominant than Williams, less efficient, and roughly equal on the defensive end. Would the Thunder bother to fix something that isn't broken just to pair Gilgeous-Alexander and Edwards?
Finally, we land in Salt Lake City. That's a key point here - the Jazz play in Salt Lake City. In today's NBA, teams hesitate to acquire players if they don't want to play for them. The Rockets have a meaningful market advantage over the Jazz. Moreover, outside of Lauri Markkanen, none of the Jazz's young players have as much cache as Sengun, Amen Thompson, or possibly even Jabari Smith Jr.
If a rebuilding team is looking to tank, they may still prefer the Thunder. They can send them approximately ten thousand first-round picks with varying degrees of value. Still, most GMs will opt to sell their fanbase on an incoming young player or two. On average, a package centered around, say, Sengun or Thompson, Cam Whitmore, and four first-round picks will net you more than Ousmane Dieng and 7 first-rounders.
All of which is to say that I'm standing by a bold assertion - the Rockets are in the best position to trade for a star player in the whole NBA.
Should they trade for a star player?
Rockets should be patient, but aggressive
It depends on the star player.
An aging star that won't carry them past the second round is a player to avoid. By contrast, a young rising superstar like Edwards is worth all the chips.
The Rockets can afford to be selective. They're already a .500 team, and they can bank on internal growth to continue improving. There's no reason to go all-in on Jimmy Butler, but for the right star, they should be willing to make an aggressive offer.
It'll be easier for them to do so than any other team.