Rockets need one thing to go right before their first pick

Arkansas v Gonzaga
Arkansas v Gonzaga / Steph Chambers/GettyImages

It is almost impossible for the Rockets to fail tonight. Whoever the pick at three is, Houston is going to be in a better spot. They just want to bank on one thing happening.

It is hard to overstate just how much one of the three forwards at the top of the 2022 NBA Draft is going to help the Houston Rockets.

Despite any shortcomings or concerns with the three guys, the top three project to be quick starters if they make it to Houston.

However, while the Rockets would get better with any of the three players at the top, there is still a hierarchy as to who will be the best fit and who will be the worst fit.

The best fit for this offense is obviously Jabari Smith. The worst fit looks like Chet Holmgren.

Don't get me wrong, even Holmgren would be good on this Rockets team, but his boom or bust potential feels far more extreme than Smith's or Banchero's.

This Rockets team has too much good to waste anything on such a variable player, so it is nice to see that the choice isn't really up to Houston. The Rockets just need one thing to happen:

Chet Holmgren needs to go off the board in the first two picks. The good news is that this seems very likely.

The Magic and the Thunder seem to need a home run far too much to pass on a guy like Holmgren in the first place. This should ensure that the Rockets are left with whoever remains between Banchero and Smith, and that is a great spot to be in.

Banchero is going to need the ball in his hands a bit more than Smith, but his upside as a scorer and floor should be higher than either of his counterparts.

One way or another, the draft becomes an automatic win for the Rockets if Holmgren comes off the board in the first two picks. Let's just hope that actually happens.

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