Why haven’t Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun been extended? 

The future is bright for the Houston Rockets. Reed Sheppard and Cam Whitemore are laying waste to Summer League, Jabari Smith Jr. and Amen Thompson are playing for Team USA’s select team, and Tari Eason is finally healthy.

However, not everything is gumdrops and rainbows among the juvenile jet boosters. Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green, the first wave of the Rockets’ rebuild, are at a crossroads. The pair were selected second and 16th in the 2021 NBA draft, and entering their fourth seasons, are eligible to sign rookie scale extensions. However, neither have signed. 

The rookie scale extension boom

The number of rookie scale extensions handed out has grown in recent seasons. In 2019, there were nine, in 2020, there were 10, and last offseason the number hit 13. Increasingly, teams are locking up their young talent ahead of restricted free agency, but the Rockets appear to be charting a different course. 

Using position-specific projections based on rookie scale extensions signed between 2019 and 2023, I calculated that Sengun would be in line for a contract worth 22.6 percent of the salary cap and Jalen Green would land a deal worth 21.9 percent. Thus far, the projections have accurately predicted Scottie Barnes, Cade Cunningham, and Franz Wagner’s rookie scale max extensions. So why are Sengun and Green being left to ponder their future employment?

Why Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun haven’t been extended: Leveraging restricted free agency

Restricted free agency has generally been unkind to players. While the players’ union didn’t fight the owners to improve restricted free agency, they may come to regret that decision should more teams force their players to enter free agency under less-than-ideal circumstances. 

Players in restricted free agency are permitted to negotiate contract terms with another team, but their previous team can match any offer. However, teams must have the requisite cap space available when they negotiate terms with a restricted free agent, but due to the “Bird exception,” the prior team can retain the player while exceeding the cap. This causes many teams to eschew negotiating with restricted free agents because there is no guarantee they sign the player, and they’re losing precious time to sign unrestricted free agents. 

The Rockets may be charting a new path by trying to squeeze every last dollar out of contracts. It’d be an interesting line in the sand to draw now, considering they gave $90 million to Dillon Brooks in free agency, but sometimes bad decisions lead to good ones. 

Why Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun haven’t been extended: They don’t believe they’re worth it

Another possibility is the Rockets aren’t convinced Green and Sengun are actually worth building around, at least not at the number they’re asking for. In Green’s case, this is highly likely. Most of his rosy salary projection was due to his high usage rates, which correlated incredibly for shooting guards, but his production and impact on winning suggested salaries around 14 percent of the cap. 

Sengun is a different matter entirely. His production has been exceptional, and his lower usage in his first two seasons is holding back his salary projection from being higher. Based on third-season points per game, the best salary predictor across all positions, Sengun would be in line for a contract worth 33.3 percent of the salary cap, a figure he cannot obtain under league rules. 

Why Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun haven’t been extended: Preserving the Jalen Green relationship

Withholding an extension from Sengun might also be an attempt to massage tensions with Green. If Sengun were to land a rookie scale max extension, and Green were offered less, there’s a high degree of likelihood that Green would find that offensive. After all, he did post on his Instagram, “Remember the disrespect.” 

While it might feel silly to care about Green’s feelings in this matter, you must remember, that this is the first time in his life that he is directly experiencing the business side of the league. Paul George recently talked about how the Clippers' initial contract extension offer was “disrespectful,” and he’s now playing in Philadelphia. In the NBA, money is respect, and the Rockets may be apprehensive to show Sengun respect, but not Green. 

Why Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun haven’t been extended: The 2025 offseason

Whenever a player becomes a free agent they have a cap hold. The purpose of the mechanic is to prevent teams from filling out their roster with free agents up to the salary cap, and then re-signing their own players beyond it through Bird rights. However, the cap hold is generally calculated based on the player’s previous salary. 

In Alperen Sengun’s case, his cap hold for the summer of 2025 will be $16.3 million. If he were to sign a rookie scale max extension for 25 percent of the salary cap right now, he’d cost $38.8 million against the cap. In waiting to sign Sengun, the Rockets can functionally open up $22.5 million in salary cap space to play with. The Sixers did this with Tyrses Maxey, and it’s a big reason they were able to add Paul George. 

As the second overall pick, Green’s cap hold will be $31.2 million. It’s far less savings, but if you add it all up, the Rockets could have $30 million extra in cap space in the summer of 2025, and still be able to hand Sengun and Green max contracts after they do their business. 

Why Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun haven’t been extended: Patience 

The NBA offseason is long. Only three players have signed their rookie scale extension as of July 15th, and an average of 10.6 have signed each of the past five offseasons. Rookie scale extensions can be signed up until the start of the regular season. The Magic, Pistons, and Raptors rushed to get extensions done, but there was no reason they had to. 

My projection system also had Evan Mobley and Trey Murphy III landing rookie scale max extensions, but they’re still waiting. In fact, the Pelicans and Cavaliers’ handling of Mobley and Murphy is informative. Both teams are playoff teams with highly compensated players already on their roster. 

The Rockets may not have been a playoff team, but Fred VanVleet is making $42.8 million and they want to make the playoffs. When the Pistons, Raptors, and Magic handed out those deals, they had no one else making close to $30 million per season. If you account for accounting complexities, it’s no surprise the teams with massive future salary commitments are slow playing these extensions. 

Unfortunately, we won’t know why the Rockets haven’t extended Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun until the die has been cast. Chances are, each reason listed above is playing a role, and there are likely components that I’ve missed. With all the money flowing into the NBA, these are quarter-of-a-billion-dollar business contracts going to 21-year-olds, and we treat it like a game of Monopoly. 

The Rockets now have the deepest collection of young talent in the NBA, and the reality is they can’t pay all of them. Hard decisions will have to be made, and just because Green and Sengun are coming up first for their extensions doesn’t mean they should be the ones handed a blank check. Every extra dollar the Rockets spend to keep Sengun and Green is money they won’t be able to give Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith, Tari Eason, Cam Whitemore, and Reed Sheppard. It might not be our money, but it’s someone’s, and you better believe they’re counting it.