The pros and cons of the Rockets acquiring Giannis Antetokounmpo

The Houston Rockets are historically an upper-middle-class NBA organization.

Let's be honest. The Rockets aren't the Lakers, Celtics, Spurs, Warriors, or Heat. They aren't the (with apologies) Wizards, Hornets, or Kings either. In evaluating the fullness of each franchise's history, the Rockets are closer to the top than the bottom, but they aren't among the elites either.

The Rockets have typically been competitive and occasionally contended. They won back-to-back titles in the 1990s. If not for the dreaded injury bug, they could have (should have?) won titles in 2009 and 2017. Otherwise, they've usually been a safe bet to make the playoffs, but a longshot to win it all.

When James Harden forced his way out of town, that changed. The Rockets decided to tank for three years to yield the next superstar to join Hakeem Olajuwon and James Harden. Now it looks like that star could become available via trade.

Should Giannis Antetokounmpo be the next great Rocket?

Giannis Antetokounmpo won't come cheap for Rockets

Let's establish some parameters. Most notably, an operating assumption in this article is that Alperen Sengun would be the centerpiece in an Antetokounmpo deal.

Sure, the Rockets could offer the Bucks market value without moving Sengun. Imagine you're selling something for one dollar, and two prospective buyers show up. One has 100 pennies, and the other has a $1 coin.

Unless you're trying to set a Guinness world record for the largest standing copper statue, you'll go with buyer #2.

It wouldn't matter if the Rockets offered the Bucks a billion first-round picks for Antetokounmpo. If the Spurs offer pick #2 and additional assets, it would trump that offer. If the Pelicans offer Zion Williamson and some of their picks back, it would trump that offer.

Would either of those teams get in on Antetokounmpo? It's hard to say. More broadly, there will likely be a robust market for the recent MVP winner. The team that lands Antetokounmpo will be offering a centerpiece, not just the sum total of his market value.

For the Rockets, that would be Sengun or Amen Thompson. Their trade value is likely comparable at this moment. All indicators point to Thompson being untouchable. His defensive upside embodies what the Rockets are trying to "be about" in the Udoka era.

It's also serendipitous that shooting is a weakness for all 3 players. The Rockets could likely design a workable offense around any 2 of this trio, but all 3 on the same roster feels untenable. If we assume that the Rockets wouldn't move Thompson, it has to be Sengun.

Yet, it won't just be Sengun, will it? It will be Sengun and stuff - a $1 coin and however many pennies it takes to win the bidding war.

Is that a cost worth paying for Antetokounmpo?

The pros of the Rockets acquiring Antetokounmpo

Forgive the truism, but Giannis Antetokounmpo is Giannis Antetokounmpo.

He is very good. Sengun will probably never be as good. Thompson will probably never be as good. Heck, even Cooper Flagg will probably never reach Antetokounmpo's stature. Unless your name is Victor Wembanyama (more on him later), the odds of you ever being as impactful as Antetokounmpo are slim.

Meanwhile, this Rockets roster was built to consolidate. Don't shoot the messenger, but there's no such thing as a "core 7". Cam Whitmore won't be content to be the most talented seventh man in the NBA. The Rockets won't be able to pay or play everybody.

Some of those "pennies" to go to the Bucks, along with Sengun, would likely be guys like Whitmore, and potentially Jabari Smith Jr. or Reed Sheppard. Different sects of Rockets fans will shed their tears over different prospects, but no matter who you like, it holds that the team can't keep all of these guys in perpetuity.

If consolidation is inescapable for the Rockets, a better player than Antetokounmpo won't be available during this core's window. They simply won't. This is their best chance to acquire one of the best players in the world. If the Rockets get gun-shy, they'll have to settle for a lesser player even if they complement the rest of their core more.

Is that such a bad thing?

The cons of the Rockets acquiring Antetokounmpo

Antetokounmpo is incredible, but he doesn't guarantee the Rockets any success. He just lost in the first round with Damian Lillard by his side.

How will he fare with Jalen Green?

Typically, a team acquires a star to pair with another star. Bringing an MVP candidate on board without his co-star in hand is shortsighted. In 2024-25, Green averaged 21.0 points per game and 3.4 assists per game with a Box Plus/Minus (BPM) of 0.5 and a True Shooting % (TS%) of 54.4%. Lillard averaged 24.9 points and 7.1 assists with a BPM of 4.0 and a TS% of 62.1%.

One of these things is not like the other.

Granted, Amen Thompson's 4.1 BPM topped both. Some will argue that Thompson would be the co-star. That's valid, but Antetokounmpo does need to play alongside a strong lead initiator. At this moment, Thompson is similar to him as a point-forward type. Their playmaking is valuable, but without reliable jump shots, both Thompson and Antetokounmpo profile as play finishers who can double as primary (ish) initiators from time to time.

Does pairing them even make sense?

The Verdict

Let's look at all the tradeable assets the Rockets have that the Bucks might value - young players and picks.

Rockets' tradeable assets

Alperen Sengun
Amen Thompson
Cam Whitmore
Jabari Smith Jr.
Jalen Green
Reed Sheppard
Tari Eason
2025 First-Round Pick (No. 10 - PHX via HOU)
2027 First-Round Pick (Most Favorable of BKN and HOU)
2027 First-Round Pick (PHX)
2028 First-Round Pick (HOU)
2029 First-Round Pick (Most Favorable of DAL, PHX, and HOU)
2030 First-Round Pick (HOU)
2031 First-Round Pick (HOU)

Now, let's construct a reasonable package for Antetokounmpo. It could look something like this :

Milwaukee Bucks receive: Alperen Sengun, Jock Landale, Cam Whitmore, Reed Sheppard, 2025 First-Round Pick (No. 10 - PHX via HOU), 2027 First-Round Pick (PHX), 2029 First-Round Pick (Most Favorable of DAL, PHX and HOU), 2031 First-Round Pick (HOU)

Houston Rockets receive: Giannis Antetokounmpo

For argument's sake, I'm trying to be generous to the Bucks here. The pertinent question is this: If Giannis is as costly as imaginable, what does that leave the Rockets with? If the team underperforms as constructed, and it's clear that they need a stronger second option than Green, do they have enough leftover to trade for his replacement?

Recall the Stepien rule. Teams can't go consecutive summers without a first-round pick. So, if the Rockets wanted to acquire a new lead guard, they'd be left with Green, Smith Jr., Eason, and intermittent first-round picks and pick swaps between 2028 and 2032 (assuming the deal happens next summer, that pick becomes eligible for a trade).

Let's assume that Houston isn't looking to gut their roster in win-now mode. They'll want to keep Smith Jr. and Eason. So the question becomes: What does Green, two unprotected firsts, and two swaps get you? Bear in mind that those picks and swaps will have limited value coming from the team that rosters Giannis Antetokounmpo,

It likely doesn't get you a Donovan Mitchell. It should get you a Zach LaVine or a Desmond Bane. So, finally, the Rockets need to ask themselves whether a core of Antetokounmpo, Thompson, a fringe star guard (whether Green or an outside hire), and a strong cast of quality supporting players is enough to compete for the title.

I think it is, so I think the Rockets should pursue Antetokounmpo. Losing Sengun will sting, but this is one of the best players in the NBA. The key point is that the Rockets have enough asset capital to acquire Antetokounmpo and still have enough leftover for another major deal if they need to make one.

It's also worth viewing the NBA as an arms race. If the Rockets don't land Antetokounmpo, the Spurs may. Facing him alongside Wembanyama will be an impossible task. How would the Thunder look with Antetokounmpo on the roster?

Accommodating Antetokounmpo won't be easy. The Rockets will need a stretch big to keep him and Thompson in the same starting lineup. They could try Jabari Smith Jr. or re-explore negotiations with Brook Lopez, but that will become a new problem to solve.

Stretch big men are rare commodities, but they're not so rare as to singularly deter the Rockets from getting Giannis Antetokounmpo. He's one of the best players in the NBA:

He may be able to drag the Rockets into the NBA's upper class.