The pros and cons of the Rockets pursuing Giannis Antetokounmpo

There is no one way to succeed in the NBA. If there were, every team would use the same strategy. Still, the Houston Rockets have mostly followed the most conventional path to success through this rebuild.

They've been building through the draft. Sure, the rumor mill insists that the Rockets want to trade for a star. It's been making that claim for a while. When the Rockets landed the fourth pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, they were supposed to send it to the Raptors for Pascal Siakam, or the Pacers for Myles Turner.

Yet, there's Amen Thompson, working to find minutes on a suddenly competitive Rockets team. Still, the rumors persist. The Rockets didn't make a move for Siakam, but surely they'll give up assets for Jimmy Butler, right?

How about Giannis Antetokoumnpo? That feels different. Butler is aging. He may have played in his last All-Star game. Antetokoumnpo should qualify for another handful of All-NBA teams.

Does that mean the Rockets should pursue him?

The pros of trading for Antetokoumnpo

Here's the thing about Giannis Antetokoumnpo: he's Giannis Antetokoumnpo. If you can get him, you get him. You work the details out later.

The case for acquiring Antetokoumnpo is simple. He's one of the five best players in the NBA. To win an NBA championship, you need one of the ten best players in the NBA - almost without exception.

The Rockets do not have one of the ten best players in the NBA. With a team this young, that's not even a pertinent question. The question is whether the Rockets have a player on their roster who's likely to become one of the league's ten best players.

Nobody likes a pragmatist. Everyone loves an optimist. Hate me if you must, but I don't think any current Rocket is likely to become one of the ten best players in the NBA.

That's not an especially harsh knock on the Rockets' roster. The league is more talented than ever. The top 10 is an exceedingly high bar. The Rockets have a handful of players who have a real chance at cracking the league's top 30. That makes for an impressive collection of young talent, but it doesn't bode well for the current group's championship projection.

On the subject of quantity, the Rockets have too many talented young players. A "core seven" is not feasible. Not one of the Rockets' young players is aspiring to be the best seventh man in the NBA - they all want more. Consolidation is inevitable.

Is Antetokoumnpo the right player to consolidate for?

The cons of trading for Antetokoumnpo

In the modern NBA, a superstar's preferences factor heavily into trade negotiations.

Antetokoumnpo could be intrigued by Houston. We shouldn't discount the Nigerian connection. Antetokoumnpo shares that cultural bond with Ime Udoka. The best player in Rockets history was from Nigeria, and the city generally has a large Nigerian diaspora.

None of which will be enough to convince Antetokoumnpo to come to Houston on its own. He's got to see another NBA title in his future to join any organization. Can the Rockets promise that to him? Who is his superstar running mate on the Rockets?

Alperen Sengun? The Rockets would need to see a larger sample of him shooting threes before committing to that duo. In 2024-25, Sengun is hitting 44.4% of his 1.9 threes per contest. That's a fantastic improvement on previous seasons, but he'd need to increase his volume significantly to be a good fit with Antetokoumnpo. Sengun can't be as selective from beyond the arch: he'd need to be a reliable pick-and-pop option to space the floor for his new star teammate.

Did somebody say three-point volume? On paper, Jalen Green is a perfect co-star for Antetokoumnpo. Their collective ability to pressure the rim could be unguardable, and Green's three-point gravity will put opposing defenses in a bind.

In practice, the Rockets would need a larger sample of Green performing like a star before committing to that duo. Even if his stats hold up for an entire season, Antetokoumnpo could be skeptical after Green's first three years in the NBA.

What about an outside hire? The Rockets could likely acquire Antetokoumnpo without touching their Suns picks. They could feasibly land him along with Kevin Durant in the same offseason. Want to get nuts? Let's get nuts. James Harden probably wouldn't be hard to get either.

Now, we're delving into fan fiction. The Rockets would decimate their young core to open a two-year title window at best. If it didn't work out, their fanbase would go right back to memorizing the names of 15-year-olds. Those would be the potential next great Rockets.

So, pairing Antetokoumpo with Sengun is risky, and pairing him with Green is risky. Landing another star to come with him could be suicidal. This is the primary argument against trading for Antetokoumpo. The timing isn't right, and the Rockets don't currently have a ready-made infrastructure for him.

Does that mean they should be out on him?

The Rockets must consider Antetokoumnpo

You need a top 10 player to compete for the NBA title. Antetokoumnpo is a top 5 player, and he might be available this summer.

When will the next top 5 player shake loose? Luka Doncic has already advanced to the Finals with the Mavericks. The Thunder have done an impeccable job building around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Nikola Jokic feels like a lifer. Anthony Davis could be on the move after LeBron James retires, but he'll be even older than Antetokoumnpo and slightly less effective.

If the Rockets want to win an NBA championship from this rebuild, they need to ask themselves: if not now, then when?

Sure, a current Rocket could make an unexpected leap. Who knows? The Rockets could snag a superstar in the middle of the first round. There are plenty of ways to land a franchise player, and all a general manager can do is maximize their odds of doing it.

Still, those are long-shot plans. The Rockets tried to maximize their odds of landing an Antetokoumnpo-level player through the draft. They didn't. The lottery is more likely to yield those players, and the Rockets are likely out of the lottery for a while now. Their pathways to an MVP-caliber player are suddenly substantially more limited.

Ideally, they'd take this season to determine who they prefer between Sengun and Green. If they learn to play together, that's great, but it's immaterial to the Antetokoumnpo sweepstakes. It's a benefit in the event that they miss out on the Greek Freak.

This summer, you try to trade one of them if it's necessary to land Antetokoumnpo (which, is likely would be). Include Amen Thompson (who realistically is a poor fit alongside Antetokoumnpo), Cam Whitmore (whose path to stardom with the Rockets feels more perilous), and as many picks as needed for the Bucks star. See how 2025-26 goes. If they get close to an NBA title, stay the course. If they fall short of expectations, trade what you have left for another star.

The most significant point is that an Antetokoumnpo is not likely to come around again for a long time. Fortune favors the brave. If the Rockets decide that the time isn't right, that comes with its own risks. They could keep this core together until they realize it's got a low ceiling, and consolidate for a top 20-30 player. They'll have missed a massive opportunity.

There's one (potentially obvious) exception. If Antetokoumnpo tells his agents that he doesn't want to play in Houston, it would be best to waive the white flag. Otherwise, the Rockets should strike while the iron is hot. This could be their only opportunity to land a bonafide MVP candidate for the next half-decade or more.

That's the surest way to succeed in the NBA.