Rockets' Amen Thompson is the favorite to win prestigious award - and it isn't close

The Houston Rockets expect continued improvement from Amen Thompson. So do the pundits - ESPN just named him the overwhelming favorite to win the NBA's Most Improved Player award.

That should come as no surprise. Thompson made tremendous strides between his rookie and sophomore seasons. His Box Plus/Minus (BPM) jumped from 1.8 to 4.1.

Will he continue to improve in his third year?

Rockets' Amen Thompson earmarked for major role

He should.

The Rockets made major moves this summer. Jalen Green is out, and Kevin Durant is in. To an extent, they'll look for Thompson to replicate some of what Green brought to the table.

Obviously, they're vastly different players. Still, the Rockets will want a guard who can pressure the rim. With Green gone, that'll be Thompson's responsibility. He may get more ball-handling reps in 2025-26.

If so, he could make another leap. Thompson's points per game jumped from 9.5 to 14.1 between his rookie and sophomore years. His assists per game went from 2.6 to 3.8.

Let's say that with an increased role, he makes a comparable jump again. Now, let's assume his rebounds, steals, and blocks stagnate. Hypothetically, Thompson would average 18.7 points, 8.2 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.3 blocks per game. That's All-NBA territory.

Yes, that hypothetical rests on a lot of assumptions. Here's the rub - Thompson likely doesn't need to improve that much to garner consideration for Most Improved Player. If he can just increase his on-ball impact while maintaining his defensive presence, he'll be in the running.

What could hold him back?

Thompson will face competition for prestigious award

It's hard to say.

That's the nature of the Most Improved Player award - it's difficult to predict. Who can say who's going to improve, and to what extent?

Look at this year's field. Dyson Daniels won the award, and Cade Cunningham was third in the voting. They're both loosely in the mold of Thompson in that they're young lottery picks with perceived star upside.

That said, Ivica Zubac was the runner-up. Christian Braun came fourth. Nobody was anticipating breakout seasons from either. NBA development is seldom linear. Think of the most random NBA player you can - they have a chance to be next year's Most Improved Player.

Largely, it's encouraging to see Thompson lead the voting here. It tells us that there's a positive perception of him around the league. Thompson is already good, and people anticipate him getting much better:

Whether he wins the Most Improved Player award or not.