Rockets could be making a colossal mistake in hinging their season on Reed Sheppard

The Houston Rockets are hoping for a big season from Reed Sheppard. The Athletic's John Hollinger says their season hinges on him (subscription needed).

"On paper, Sheppard's skill set is exactly what the Rockets need, and he should get more rope this season, but they can't wait on him."

- John Hollinger on Reed Sheppard

That could be a problem.

That's not to say Sheppard isn't poised for a big year. He's got a massive opportunity in front of him. With Fred VanVleet injured, the Rockets badly need a strong season from the soon-to-be sophomore.

Sheppard will be jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire. It ultimately doesn't matter what the Rockets need from Sheppard. If he can't provide it, he can't provide it.

You can't draw blood from a stone.

Rockets' Reed Sheppard has lofty expectations

It's worth discussing what a breakthrough would look like for Sheppard in 2025-26. To do that, you need to look at his 2024-25 rookie season.

Sheppard averaged 12.8 points and 4.2 assists per 75 possessions. He shot 33.8% from long range with a Box Plus/Minus of -1.7. If nothing else, that leaves ample room for improvement.

The "sophomore leap" is real. It happens. One of the most infamous examples happens to be a player that Sheppard bears some resemblance to. As a rookie, former MVP Steve Nash had a -3.1 BPM. As a sophomore, he leaped to 1.4.

That's not to say Sheppard will make the same leap. Taking a former back-to-back MVP and using him as a case study would be bad processing. Still, something is encouraging about an undersized, limited run-and-jump point guard making a massive leap betwene his rookie and sophomore seasons. Sheppard could do the same:

But the Rockets can't count on it.

Rockets can't rely on breakout from Sheppard

More realistically, Sheppard will make marginal gains.

The Rockets should expect him to improve on that 33.8% three-point shooting. Sheppard should bump that mark up by a few percentage points. If he can, it'll open up other aspects of his game. If he can't, it's a concern that extends far past 2025-26.

Suppose Sheppard jumped to a 0.0 BPM. That would be highly encouraging in terms of his long-term projection. Here's the question:

Is it good enough for the Rockets?

The answer? It has to be. The Rockets need to understand that they can't rely on Sheppard to morph into a starting-caliber point guard overnight. They're going to have to work around VanVleet's absence, because replacing him with a sophomore who struggled as a rookie isn't something they can count on:

The season needs to hinge on someone else.