Rockets desperately need Reed Sheppard to reach ceiling after playoff struggles

The Houston Rockets should not regret paying Fred VanVleet.

It's best to get that out of the way before proceeding with this article.

It's true. VanVleet has been instrumental in shaping the Rockets' new culture. He's a mouthpiece for Ime Udoka on the floor. VanVleet is a leader, and these young Rockets needed to be led.

That said, he's had a gruesome performance through three playoff games this year. VanVleet is averaging 11.3 points per game while shooting 26.8% from the field and 20.7% from long range.

Ghastly stuff.

VanVleet has been invaluable to the Rockets, but he was never part of the long-term vision. At 31, his best NBA days are likely behind him.

The Rockets can only hope that they have his replacement on the roster.

Rockets need Reed Sheppard to replace VanVleet

That replacement would likely be Reed Sheppard.

Some Rockets fans will advocate for Amen Thompson as the long-term point guard. That feels increasingly unlikely. Thompson has struggled to generate offense in half-court sets against the Warriors. Moreover, if he's going to succeed alongside Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green, the Rockets are going to need elite shooting at at least one position in the starting lineup.

That's supposed to be Sheppard's calling card. This is one of the best shooting prospects to enter the NBA in some time. Sheppard struggled to find his rhythm throughout the 2024-25 season, but he seemed to be turning a corner at the end of the season.

It's not worth discussing his production in the postseason. Sheppard has played two minutes in one game. His season is effectively done. The Rockets won't find out if he has the potential to replace VanVleet this year.

Next year, that has to change.

Rockets must expand Sheppard's role next season

There are caveats here.

Who knows if Sheppard will even be on the roster? There's been plenty of speculation that the Rockets would trade for a star player. If they're interested in Giannis Antetokounmpo, they won't let Sheppard be a sticking point in negotiations.

Let's assume he's on the roster. If so, the Rockets need to find more burn for Sheppard. If he doesn't look likely to meet his potential, they'll need another succession plan for VanVleet.

If the Rockets pick up the veteran's team option, next year will be the last on VanVleet's contract. If they like him enough, they may try to work out a long-term arrangement with VanVleet, but paying him starter's money in his next deal would be a mistake. VanVleet is a small guard who's already showing signs of decline. By the time he reaches his mid-30s, he won't be a starting-caliber player.

By contrast, Sheppard should be approaching his prime. That won't happen if he doesn't have space to develop. If he can become the player Houston envisioned when they picked him third overall, he provides the Rockets with an easy answer to their point guard dilemma:

Even if VanVleet has been a good answer in the meantime.