Rockets dodged a Ben Simmons bullet that nobody saw coming

The Houston Rockets received mixed reviews for their infamous James Harden trade. If they'd opted to acquire Ben Simmons instead (as was widely rumored), it'd look a lot worse in 2025.

Nobody saw this coming. Sure, some folks liked the Harden deal. They felt that the Rockets needed draft capital more than they required Simmons. What they didn't anticipate was that in five years, Simmons would be contemplating retirement.

Yet, that's exactly the case. Simmons is thinking about hanging 'em up. It's a shocking development for a former number one pick who once looked like a future star.

At one time, he looked like someone a lot of fans thought was a better choice than four unprotected first-round picks and three pick swaps.

Rockets wise to avoid Ben Simmons

Hindsight is 20/20. It would be too easy to credit the Rockets for anticipating that Simmons' career was trending downward.

It was the summer of 2020. Simmons was coming off his age-23 season, in which he averaged 16.4 points, 8.0 assists, 7.8 rebounds, and 2.1 steals per game. He'd been fourth in Defensive Player of the Year voting. This was a young star on the rise:

Only, it would be the best season of Simmons' career.

You know the story. The very next year, Simmons would pass on an opportunity to dunk on the diminutive Trae Young in favor of finding a cutting Matisse Thybulle with a pass. It was fundamentally the "right" play, but in real-world terms, it couldn't have been more wrong. Simmons' killer instinct came into question.

He missed the entirety of the following 2021-22 season. By the time he got back, he was a shade of his former self. On the Brooklyn Nets, Simmons stopped collecting triple-doubles in favor of triple-singles. His fall from superstar to role player was precipitous.

Now, he's considering retirement.

Rockets fans have nightmares over alternate history

Suppose the Rockets had traded Harden to the Sixers for Simmons and one first-round pick.

In some respects, life would be similar. Assuming Simmons still gets injured, the tank likely resumes a year later than it did. That means there's no Jalen Green (or Phoenix pick) to trade for Kevin Durant.

Perhaps the Rockets still make a draft day deal for Alperen Sengun, although they'd have been less focused on acquiring young talent. Still, there's no Tari Eason or Reed Sheppard. Moreover, there's no surplus of future-focused assets to trade for a superstar if that's what the Rockets end up doing.

The hypothetical gets murky after that. Who knows? Perhaps Victor Wembanyama ends up in Rockets red by way of the butterfly effect.

That's not a possibility worth getting hung up on. It can only be said that in terms of tangibles, the Rockets would have significantly less now if they'd gone with Simmons. Unfortunately, his career didn't go as well as it could have, but the Rockets should pat themselves on the back for declining to be part of it:

Or, they should count their lucky stars.