Rockets must exploit golden draft opportunity if history repeats itself

The Houston Rockets know how volatile the NBA draft can be.

In 2023, they had the 4th pick in the class. The consensus was that they were torn between Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore. Ultimately, they chose Thompson -

But Whitmore was available anyway.

Nobody expected him to slip to 20th overall. That said, there are major slippages in every draft. This year's class will be no exception:

But if Ace Bailey slips to 10th, it'll shock the draft community.

For a long time, Bailey was widely considered the second-best prospect in this class. Dylan Harper has long usurped him, but Bailey was a lock for the third pick until the last couple of days. Suddenly, there's widespread speculation that he'll slip:

What if he slips to 10th?

Rockets could land star prospect

Let's talk about why Bailey is slipping.

Although we won't talk about it much. There's too much speculation involved. Reports about his character are conflicting - there seem to be concerns, but other scouts describe him as a great kid. It seems that his representation isn't doing him any favors. Bailey is declining to meet with prospective suitors, and it's unclear why.

That's not for me to consider. I've not met Ace Bailey or his representatives. The point is that he might slip.

Even if he does, some analysts would have the Rockets pass on him. That would be a mistake.

Rockets could land golden opportunity in draft

There are certainly underlying metrics to suggest that Bailey isn't, as they say, "a guy".

He had a Box Plus/Minus (BPM) of 4.5 last year. If you're impressed by that mark, you're not aware of the difference between college and NBA stats. For reference, Collin Murray-Boyles had a BPM of 11.9. Bailey's teammate Dylan Harper's BPM was 9.2.

...Cooper Flagg's BPM was 16.3. Sorry. I learned that, so now you have to know it too.

Bailey's shot diet leaves something to be desired. He's too reliant on tough buckets. He loves the midrange, and it's reflected in his 53.6% True Shooting %.

He's also shown limited ability as a playmaker. Bailey had a meager 8.3% Assist Percentage and a suboptimal 11.0% Turnover Percentage.

Have I sold him yet?

Here's the deal - Bailey has bust potential. That's undeniably true. He's also a 6'10" wing who shot a passable 34.6% from deep. Moreover, he may be too reliant on tough shots, but inversely, the kid can knock down some exceedingly tough shots.

Bailey has showcased some desire to defend as well. Simply put, he's a high-ceiling, low-floor prospect. If he slips to 10th, the Rockets have an opportunity to nab a prospect with far more potential than anyone else on the board. It would be an opportunity they simply could not pass on:

And if history is any indication, they won't.