Rockets faced with massive Jalen Green decision trade rumors can't mask

For as intriguing as the rumor is that the Houston Rockets would be willing to include Alperen Sengun over Jalen Green in a trade for Giannis Antetokounmpo, a harsh reality remains. The 2025 offseason will be a turning point in Green's career and Houston's championship trajectory.

If the Rockets back the wrong player, however, even the intrigue of Antetokounmpo won't be able to save them from a potentially disastrous outcome.

Houston is a viable destination for Antetokounmpo in a potential trade. The Rockets have a compelling collection of assets, as well as a ready-to-win environment for the two-time MVP to enter and elevate.

According to Kurt Helin of NBC Sports, the Rockets are willing to consider including Sengun instead of Green in a trade for Antetokounmpo.

"Houston would be open to trading Alperen Sengun, league sources told NBC Sports, but the Bucks may be higher on a Jalen Green-based trade (depending on how they rate Green)."

That seemingly implies that Houston would prefer to part with Sengun over Green, but the rumor does nothing to change the fact that uncomfortable internal discussions are looming.

Rockets need to decide if Jalen Green is a franchise player—immediately

Green put forth his best NBA season in 2024-25. He'd posted higher statistical marks in the past, but he recorded the highest three-point and free throw percentages of his career, as well has his strongest eFG%, while averaging 21.0 points per game.

Green also started all 82 games and played 32.9 minutes per contest on a team that ranked No. 5 in defensive rating.

The difference between 2024-25 and 2025-26, however, is that Green will no longer enter the season on a team-friendly deal. He received a more than manageable $12,483,048 during the final year of his rookie-scale contract in 2024-25, which is one of the main reasons his quality was of such significance.

2025-26 will mark the first season of the three-year, $105,333,333 contract extension he signed, however, meaning he'll need to live up to the $33,333,333 he'll receive starting in October.

Green's salary increase will come with a significant jump in expectations. His averages of 21.0 points, 4.6 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 0.9 steals, and 2.9 three-point field goals made on .423/.354/.813 shooting were nothing to scoff at when he made less than $12.5 million, but in 2025-26, the substance of what he provides will reside under a league-wide magnifying lens.

Star-caliber money begets star-caliber consistency, and if Green is unable to provide it, the Rockets will find it significantly more challenging to justify his role as a featured scoring threat.

Jalen Green's new contract will determine his actual value

Green showed serious All-Star potential at points of the 2024-25 season, primarily between January 1 and Mar. 1. During that 28-game period, he averaged 24.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 3.8 three-point field goals made per game, shooting at a clip of .451/.398/.798.

That version of Green was well worth the extension, as his offensive consistency and efficiency were tough to overlook at just 23 years of age.

Unfortunately, Green fell apart during the 2025 NBA Playoffs. He dropped 38 points, six assists, four rebounds, and three steals in Game 2 of the Rockets' seven-game loss to the Golden State Warriors, but that was effectively the only significant showing he provided.

Removing Game 2, Green finished the first round averaging 9.2 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 0.1 steals on .311/.192/.632 shooting.

It's fair to believe that was an outlier of a series from a player who had never seen a second of postseason action before running into a team led by four-time NBA champions Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. It's also appropriate to wonder, however, if Green revealed some degree of his true colors.

Rival executives are likely wondering the same, but considering he's a young, athletic, and productive scoring guard, the market for trading him is likely to be strong nonetheless.

Rockets' best chance to trade Jalen Green could be this summer

Green will enter the 2025-26 season with something to prove given his increase in salary and lackluster play in the postseason. The reason he could still be moved for a significant return is the simple fact that he's a young, athletic, and productive scoring guard on a 52-win team team.

Once his extension formally kicks in and every performance is weighed against his salary, however, trading him could prove significantly more challenging.

Green's upside would likely continue to intrigue rival executives, as would the fact that he only signed a three-year extension. That certainly minimizes the risk compared to a full four-year deal that could otherwise derail a front office's short-term vision.

There's arguably no better time to trade a player, however, than before they can prove a negotiating partner's positive assumptions wrong—a truth that epitomizes Houston's dilemma.

Green is a 23-year-old who's unlearning negative tendencies instilled in him by previous Rockets regimes. He's already taken a significant step forward, leading a 52-win team in scoring and posting a pair of 40-point games during the regular season. The same mystery that makes him an appealing trade option to others is why the Rockets are having so much trouble moving on.

Unfortunately, this difficult decision about how Green factors into the future needs to be made this summer if the Rockets hope to maximize their opportunity to make the leap toward contender status.