Rockets Game 7 vs Warriors will have massive ripple effects throughout NBA

The Houston Rockets have already defied the odds by forcing a Game 7 on Sunday night against the Golden State Warriors. What comes next will be fascinating.

Will the Rockets become the 14th team in NBA history to win a best-of-seven series after falling into a 3-1 hole? Or will we be speaking about the path forward for them this offseason come Monday morning?

These are two very different outcomes. Regardless of what happens in Game 7, though, the ripple effects of Houston's fate will be felt not just across the organization, but the entire NBA.

The star-sized elephant in the room

When will the Rockets make a consolidation trade? Everybody wants to know, and they've wanted to know since before this season. Logic dictates we let this playoff campaign reach its yet-to-be-determined conclusion, then go from there. But #ThisLeague doesn't work that way. Houston is already being shoehorned into every batch of hypothetical trades for Giannis Antetokounmpo.

The overarching consolidation exercise is a fair one. It is not a matter of if, but when. Never mind how you feel about the Rockets having enough offensive upside over the long term. They can't afford to keep this core together forever.

Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun will begin new deals next season. Jabari Smith Jr. is perhaps the Association's most fascinating rookie-extension candidate this summer. Tari Eason, also extension eligible, is a similarly interesting case. Then, in the summer of 2026, both Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore will be extension eligible. Houston has some time before its kiddos get prohibitively expensive, but not a ton. And if there is anything recent events have taught us, it's that NBA windows open and close fast, even when it seems like they'll last for extended pockets.

There is merit, then, to the Rockets operating with a semblance of urgency over the offseason, when they will remain hyper-flexible, and flush with assets. But this ideology, for the most part, banked on them getting bounced in the first round. And it seemed borderline infallible when they were down 3-1.

Well, they aren't anymore. And if they win a playoff series against a more veteran team, even as the higher seed, it lends credence to the wait-and-see approach espoused by general manager Rafael Stone. Maybe Amen Thompson has another level on offense. Or perhaps they dust off Reed Sheppard next year to level up. Stone for the time being will not place limits on Houston's players. Beating the Warriors to some extent validates that approach.

Of course, the Rockets could still lose. In which case, what then? The consolidation route will remain appealing, particularly to those evaluating the team from a 10,000-foot view. But the difference between going all-in for Giannis, Kevin Durant, or Devin Booker surely can't be the outcome of one game...right?

Losing no doubt gives the Rockets more to reflect upon. Their hands will also be somewhat tied by the trade market. They can't deal for Giannis or Booker if he's not available. On the flip side, Houston has create-your-own-trade-market assets. It is not constrained by the same limitations as others. But it does have to decide which of its prospects are core players, and which they will strive to protect at all costs as part of any consolidation move. Whatever the Rockets decide to do—or, for that matter, not do—on the trade market will have seismic ripple effects across the rest of the league.

Houston has its own free agents to consider

Beyond the extension eligibility of Eason and Smith, the Rockets have two key could-be free agents. Steven Adams is headed to unrestricted free agency, while Fred VanVleet has a $44.9 million team option.

Winning or losing against the Warriors may not determine their fates, per se. But it is an extension of everything else.

If the Rockets win, perhaps they're more comfortable declining VanVleet's team option, and re-signing him for the longer haul at a smaller annual number. Traveling this path lets them duck the tax while also re-signing Adams, and preserving its punishing dual- and triple-big lineups.

If they lose, they could do the same thing. Or they could see more value in picking up VanVleet's team option, preferring to use him as a stopgap through next season, or an expiring-contract trade chip in the pursuit of bigger name players.

Whatever they do with Adams and VanVleet must be viewed through the lens of the longer-term payroll, too. Can they retain both at multiyear numbers that jibe with what they'll (possibly) be paying all of Sengun, Green, Eason and Smith? And if Houston gets peeved by any of their impending future commitments, does it open the door for suitors to swoop him and acquire the needs-to-be or soon-to-be paid?

A deeper playoff run makes everything easier

Short of winning the title, the Rockets will have tough calls to make over the offseason, both in the near and long term, no matter how Game 7 shakes out. But advancing makes the process much easier, allowing Houston to operate from a position of strength, having shown that everyone already in place, though imperfect and still developing, can make meaningful noise without a major addition or overhaul.

Losing will, if nothing else, at least ever so slightly increase the urge to act—that natural impulse to second-guess your path and process, however seemingly promising, whenever you bow out amid clear, enduring flaws.

Are Houston's flaws solvable, with the current core, a matter of merely giving the roster time and space to figure it out from within? Or will the Rockets require significant talent infusion from outside the organization? Game 7 will go a long way towards figuring that out.

Dan Favale is a Senior NBA Contributor for FanSided and National NBA Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Bluesky (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.