Rockets' hot shooting start may be disastrously misleading

The Houston Rockets are leading the NBA in three-point percentage at 45.4%. That's encouraging, but it might not be sustainable.

Sorry to play the pessimist. It will be exhausting for some: "The Rockets are the best shooting team in the NBA. Here's why that's a bad thing!".

Fair - only, the Rockets aren't the best shooting team in the NBA. We all know that.

So what's going on here?

Rockets' hot shooting is uncharacteristic

The addition of Kevin Durant has certainly helped. He's actually shooting a modest 36.8% from deep, but he opens up the floor for everyone else.

Otherwise, we're looking at a lot of career highs. Jabari Smith Jr. is hitting 37.0% of his 6.8 attempts per game. Tari Eason is knocking down 53.3% of his 3.8 attempts per game. Even Alperen Sengun is remarkably connecting on 57.1% of his 3.5 attempts per.

Even Reed Sheppard is getting in on the action. He's hitting a mediocre 36.4% of his triples, but if you filter out a horrid first game, he's connecting on 47.6%.

Is any of this sustainable?

Rockets can't rely on shooting alone

Yes and no.

Smith Jr. was always supposed to be a great shooter. That was a large part of his profile as a prospect. His 37.0% mark is roughly in line with his predraft expectations.

The same could be said for Sheppard. If he can't be a 40% three-point shooter, his NBA value comes into question. So, he's also meeting expectations in this specific regard.

Sengun and Eason? That's a different story. If either of them can maintain a clip above 50%, it'll be no small miracle. Those are two pressure points where the sustainability of this success comes into question.

That's not to say the Rockets won't continue to be successful.

Rockets are strong in other areas

The Rockets are also, once again, leading the NBA in Offensive Rebounding % (42.1%).

That's the definition of sustainable. Offensive rebounding is a static skill. If it's something you're good at, it's something you'll be good at all year long.

More broadly, the Rockets remain one of the most physical teams in the NBA. Sengun's playmaking won't be going anywhere, and neither is Amen Thompson's defense.

So, this team will succeed even when their shooting regresses to the mean, but they need to be prepared. The Rockets need to understand that they can't expect to outshoot everyone all year:

If they do, they'll be OK when that stops happening.