The Rockets must consider a blockbuster deal for a hometown hero

That's right: Another Houston Rockets star player trade piece.

This one feels different. There's something tangible about it. It may be a fait accompli. If nothing else, fans are talking:

They think the Kings' De'Aaron Fox is heading to Houston.

He's the hometown hero. He's the star lead guard the Rockets have been seeking. Fox feels like a perfect fit in a cosmic, existential way.

Is he the right player for the Rockets on the court?

Fox would be an intriguing fit for the Rockets

Let's take stock of the Rockets' situation.

This team is 15-7. That qualifies them as ahead of schedule. Most of what the Rockets have been doing in 2024-25 has been working, but some of it hasn't.

What - or who - has been working mostly resides in the frontcourt. Alperen Sengun has been revelatory on defense, and his offense is rounding back into form. Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, and Dillon Brooks may be the best defensive wing rotation in basketball.

The backcourt has been a different story. Fred VanVleet is having an uncharacteristically poor season. Jalen Green is having - well, a characteristically poor season. He has given the Rockets some star performances, but his inconsistency is rearing its ugly head again in 2024-25.

None of which automatically means Fox is the answer. The logic that the Rockets need a guard so they ought to acquire a star guard is superficial. That star guard needs to compliment Sengun.

Can Fox do that?

Rockets should take a hard look at Fox

There's a temptation to use the Kings as a proxy. Domantas Sabonis is among the most similar players to Sengun in the league. Just two seasons ago, he paired with Fox to give the Kings the best offense in the NBA.

How far could those Kings have gotten with (arguably) the best defensive wing rotation in basketball?

Yet, even that logic rests on superfluous assumptions. Sabonis is not Sengun. Sengun has eclipsed him as a defender, and he may be a more naturally talented scorer. By contrast, Sabonis is a narrowly better passer, and most significantly, a substantially better shooter.

So, to compliment Sengun, a player should ideally be able to shoot. That's not necessarily Fox's strong suit. He's shooting 35.5% from three-point range after a career-best 36.9% in 2023-24.

It's worth noting that Fox's 35.5% is better than VanVleet's (32.3%) or Green's (33.1%)' three-point percentage in 2024-25. A peak under the hood reflects an even greater disparity between Fox and the Rockets' duo as shooters.

Fox is shooting 35.3% on catch-and-shoot threes, and 37.9% on pull-up threes. It's worth considering the midrange game in terms of working in tandem with Sengun, too. Fox is shooting 56.3% between 3 and 10 feet, and 50.7% on shots between 10-16 feet.

Green is shooting 36.8% on catch-and-shoot opportunities. For some, the buck will stop there. When Sengun draws a double down low, he's most likely to generate catch-and-shoot chances for teammates. Isn't this the most complimentary skill for his co-star?

Perhaps - but when a player is shooting dreadfully from virtually everywhere else, we shouldn't squabble over an extra percentage point. Green is knocking down 30.2% of his pull-up threes. He's shooting 33.9% between 3 and 10 feet, and 21.4% (wow) between 10 and 16.

Finally, VanVleet is simply having a down year. He's shooting 35.4% on catch-and-shoot threes, 30.1% on pull-up threes, 48.8% between 3 and 10 feet, and 28.0% between 10 and 16 feet.

Aside from breaking down their shooting profiles, it should be noted that Fox can pressure the rim effectively, make plays for teammates, and is a stalwart defender in his own right. As of 2024-25, Fox is by far the best player in this group.

Shouldn't that matter above all else?

Rockets need a lead guard

No decision comes without risks. There can be plenty of sound arguments made against acquiring Fox. To begin with, he just isn't a great three-point shooter. Fox never has been, and he probably never will be. For a Rockets team that struggles to connect beyond the arch, it may be more rational to bring in a star who's lethal from long-range.

More broadly, it's fair to wonder if Sengun and Fox are a dynamic enough duo to compete for the title. As of this writing, nobody would count either as a top-10 player. It's possible that nobody ever will.

That said, the Rockets have found tremendous success as the worst-shooting good team in the NBA as is. A dynamic point guard who can create offense could put them over the top. Fox would upgrade the team's shooting anyway, and he'd make them substantially less predictable and harder to guard.

Presumably, the deal would revolve around Green, perhaps Cam Whitmore and Reed Sheppard, and draft capital. If the Rockets kept VanVleet, they could slide him into a sixth-man role. From there, they'd likely slide Dillon Brooks to the 2 and insert Amen Thompson into the starting lineup.

After all, Brooks is shooting 38.8% from deep this year. He and Fox would be a better-shooting backcourt than VanVleet and Green have been in 2024-25. They could be a better-shooting backcourt than that duo will ever be.

It's worth noting that VanVleet is on the wrong side of 30. He's a small guard. This is a prime candidate for early age-related regression.

As for Green, he's never shot well at the NBA level. That could change, but it's more likely to change in a new uniform than in Houston.

In some respects, Fox is a hybrid of VanVleet and Green. He's got the former's floor vision and the latter's athleticism. The Rockets won't suffer a defensive drop-off by shifting from VanVleet to Fox either. His 1.7 steals per game make him one of the best defensive playmaking guards in the NBA.

On that note, it's worth adding that Houston will make a sacrifice in the possession battle by making this change. VanVleet is notoriously turnover-averse, whereas Fox coughs it up 3.6 turnovers per game. That said, Houston's 15th-ranked 112.7 Offensive Rating leaves room for improvement. The Rockets need a dynamic guard who can create offense - often, that comes with turnovers.

In simple terms, Fox is likely to bump the Offensive Rating more than his turnovers may compromise the Rockets' 3rd-ranked Defensive Rating. If he can drag the offense into the top 10 without letting the defense slip out of the top 10, guess what?

The Rockets should be contenders.

The Rockets are often named in superstar trade rumors. This one feels different, Fox is a hometown hero, he's not dreadfully off of Houston's age timeline, and he brings much of what this squad needs to the table.

These rumors should be taken a bit more seriously.