Rockets' NBA Draft Lottery Odds if the Season Ended Today: Unlikely to Capture Flagg

Houston Rockets fans have big dreams when it comes to the upcoming lottery.

That's understandable. Last summer, the Nets unexpectedly sent them the third overall pick. It was a massive leap in terms of odds.

Unfortunately, it came during one of the weakest drafts in recent memory.

The Rockets still secured Reed Sheppard. As rough as his rookie year has been, his potential remains. Rockets fans will look for him to make strides during his 2025-26 sophomore campaign.

Which rookie will be by his side?

Rockets' lottery odds beginning to crystalize

If the season ended today, there would be a 92.0% chance of the Suns pick that Houston owns landing 13th overall. That is, for those who are new to numbers, high.

The next most likely outcome has the pick landing 14th. There's a 2.3% chance of that happening. The pick has a 1.7% chance of landing fourth, a 1.5% chance of landing third, a 1.3% chance of landing second, and a whopping 1.2% chance of landing first overall.

That said, the season does not end today. Rockets fans should be watching the Mavericks. They're one spot ahead of the Suns in the lottery odds. The Mavericks are followed by the Trail Blazers and the Spurs, and the Suns are trailed by the Kings.

The Kings have no incentive to lose - their pick goes to the Hawks either way. The Mavericks should get Anthony Davis back soon, and the Blazers have been surprisingly competitive this year. Meanwhile, the Spurs have suffered too many injuries to rise above the Suns.

So, the pick's odds are exceedingly likely to land between 11th and 13th. Barring another stroke of incredible luck, the pick should land in the same range.

Who should the Rockets be looking at?

Rockets will have intriguing options

I've been advocating for Liam McNeeley. The Rockets have a dire need for shooting, and McNeeley is a 6'7" wing who can knock down triples and shouldn't be too small to crack the rotation. His secondary playmaking chops are a bonus.

If Duke's Kon Knueppel is available, he'd be an even better choice for similar reasons. That said, he's widely mocked to come off the board before 11th overall. So is his teammate Khaman Maluach, although a recent aggregate mock had him slipping outside of this range.

In any case, the Rockets are sitting pretty. This team would be picking somewhere in the mid-to-late 20s if they were relying on their own pick. By acquiring the Suns' pick, they'll be in a position to draft higher than a team as competitive as this typically would.

Even if that's not your big dream.