The Rockets need to make an obvious decision this summer

Houston Rockets fans are in a toxic relationship.

All the patterns are there. The partner in question makes them feel safe and comfortable. Then, they pull the rug out from under them.

That partner is Jalen Green.

In Houston's last contest against the Heat, Green got back to his abusive ways. He scored 19 points on 6/20 from the field and 1/9 shooting from long-range. It was a characteristic performance for Green.

He leads the Rockets in field goal attempts. Green is a volume scorer by nature - if he's not racking up points, he's not providing much. The opposite could be said for Alperen Sengun.

He had 18 points on 8/14 shooting. Sengun was quiet offensively in the fourth quarter, and the Rockets could have used more than 18 points from him. Still, he also chipped in 18 rebounds, 6 assists, a steal, and a block. By contrast, Green contributed 3 assists, 2 rebounds, and no defensive stats.

If the Rockets choose between them, it isn't a choice. Put differently:

The choice is obvious.

Rockets stars don't fit together

Basketball is a complex game. There are endless permutations of strategy that can be used to maximize two players.

Yet, it can also be simple. Sure, there are methods to get the most out of players. There's a way to wiggle a square peg into a round hole, but that doesn't mean it wouldn't be better to just go get a round peg.

Neither Sengun nor Green are great three-point shooters. That's a logical starting point. Both players would prefer to score in the paint when possible.

Traditionally, that's a center's role. In 2024, tradition's place in basketball is flimsy. In theory, Green could thrive alongside a stretch five. That would open up driving lanes for him to get to the rack.

Inversely, Sengun would have an easier time with a co-star who shoots reliably. Defenses are beginning to swarm him when he's got the ball inside. If Sengun isn't being double-teamed, a defender is likely hedging towards him. Sengun would utilize his strong passing vision to find open shooters if he was surrounded by shooting.

Some may protest that flipping Amen Thompson for a shooter would also solve the problem. Sure. If you think Ime Udoka is open to moving Thompson, you're sorely mistaken. He's on pace to become the best defensive wing in the NBA, and the Rockets will move mountains to make him work.

Jabari Smith Jr. is a capable shooter. Fred VanVleet has historically been one. He's having a down year, but it's a moot point. VanVleet isn't Sengun's co-star in theory or practice. Green is supposed to be the guy, so the Rockets need someone who can fill those shoes:

And choosing him over Sengun isn't an option.

Rockets need to keep most productive young player

Advanced stats are controversial.

Some people think they're the gospel. They believe that aggregate catch-all metrics can accurately measure players. Others throw any stat with an acronym out the window.

As is often the case, the middle ground is most accurate. Stats like BPM, VORP, and LEBRON are tools. They have a place in NBA discourse, but they should be taken with a grain of salt.

What about a catch-all that catches all the catch-alls? That's what HNI aims to be. It aggregates 7 different catch-all metrics to see where players rank on average. A stat that takes 7 different measures of how a player impacts winning at the same time feels like it should have some merit.

Sengun is 11th in HNI. Don't worry - you don't need to scroll all that way down to find Green. I'll do the grunt work.

He's 126th.

Let's talk about these stats. Some will posit that Sengun only ranks so strongly because he gets rebounds and assists.

...OK?

Isn't that the point? Rebounds and assists help teams win games. Sengun scores, rebounds, assists, and he gets a solid number of steals and blocks. Green scores, and...

...

Oh, and he scores inefficiently. Sure, a 30-point game on strong efficiency from Green will often secure the Rockets a win. Sometimes, it feels as rare as a solar eclipse.

You can circle back to the fit issue. If Green played alongside a three-point shooting big, he might soar up these rankings. That's a valid point.

Doesn't it also stand to reason that Sengun's catch-all metrics would improve alongside a co-star who could shoot? Let's say Sengun and Green both ended up with rosters that catered to their strengths in 2025-26. Sengun could likely creep inside the top 10 in HMI.

How far can Green leap? Let's say he catapults 50 spots. That would be an absurd statistical improvement.

It would leave Green 76th in the NBA in this HNI.

The argument here isn't that the Rockets need to make their decisions according to HNI. The point is broader. When you have two players who seem incompatible, you don't move the player who's been productive because the player who's been counterproductive could be productive in theory. You keep the productive player.

It won't happen by this year's deadline. The poison pill provision in Green's contract will make him nearly impossible to move for now. Still, the Rockets need to be mindful of the evidently poor fit between their two 2021 draftees:

This summer, they need to break up with Jalen Green.