Rockets' odds of landing No. 1 or a top-4 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft

"With the number 1 pick, the Houston Rockets select..."

Those are words that Rockets fans haven't heard in a while. The last time they had the top choice in the draft, they took Yao Ming. Before that, you'd have to go back to 1984.

If you don't know who the Rockets picked, re-evaluate your fandom.

Hakeem "The Dream" Olajuwon is the best player in franchise history. He's the only player of his era that the Rockets could have selected ahead of Michael Jordan without it being viewed as a (total) blunder. The Rockets selected him, and it revolutionized their organization.

Could history repeat itself on Monday?

Rockets have a slim chance of landing a top pick

It isn't likely.

Per Tankathon, the Rockets have a modest 3.8% chance of landing the number one pick via the Suns. Even the odds of the pick landing in the top 4 are just 17.3%.

Rockets fans know that odds can be defied. They were most likely to land the 9th pick last summer, and their pick jumped up to third overall. That's why Reed Sheppard is on the roster.

More pessimistic fans may feel like lightning won't strike twice. Luckily, that's not how odds work. A 17.3% chance is a 17.3% chance no matter what happened before.

If they do jump into the top 4, it'll be a monumental occasion.

Rockets could change the future with a top pick

Everyone knows that Duke's Cooper Flagg is the grand prize in this lottery. He looks like an archetypical two-way wing. Flagg should be one of the best defenders in the NBA, and a top offensive option as well.

That said, there are other intriguing players near the top of this class. Rutgers' Dylan Harper could be the lead guard the Rockets are missing. He's a 6'5" pick-and-roll maestro. Harper can make a wide range of passing reads and get to the rim at will with his craft and athleticism.

Still, his former teammate Ace Bailey may be the best possible fit for the Rockets. Fans are clamouring for the team to acquire Kevin Durant. Bailey is drawing comparisons to the legendary wing. He'll probably never be as good as Durant - that's an unreasonably high bar - but Bailey could be the halfcourt shot creator this team is missing.

Finally, V.J. Edgecombe is interesting. He looks like a 3-and-D guard who can create his shot when needed as well.

Any top-4 pick would be a blessing for a Rockets team that's already loaded with young talent. Realistically, the Rockets are fortunate to even have a lottery pick this year. A top-10 pick is a huge addition to this roster.

That won't stop fans from holding out for number one.