Rockets regret for missing on star grows as Jalen Green questions get louder

Every Houston Rockets fan has a vision of what they'd have done with the team.

Armchair GMing is a popular pastime. It's easy to say what should be done and even easier to say what should have been done. Hindsight is 20/20, and when it comes to the NBA draft, nobody has perfect vision.

Even Rafael Stone has missed. The Rockets' general manager has generally done a wonderful job of building this team through the draft, but he's made mistakes.

One of them could prove to be foundational.

Rockets made wrong choice in 2021 NBA Draft

Rockets fans will disagree with each other's visions, too.

That's an important caveat. Keep this in mind as you read on. If you disagree, that's fine! That's the beauty of sports. That being said:

The Rockets should have picked Evan Mobley ahead of Jalen Green in 2021.

Let's consult the numbers. Mobley has a Box Plus/Minus (BPM) of 4.7 in 2024-25. Green is at 0.6. That's roughly the difference between a star player and a fringe starter.

Some will rely on points per game in this comparison. Green's 21.3 points per game are impressive. There's some merit in the position that Green's ability to get a bucket set him apart - but that merit is limited.

This is the NBA. There are scorers. The Rockets could find someone else who can get buckets more readily than they could find a switch-everything Defensive Player of the Year candidate who casually contributes 18.6 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 3.0 assists per game. Mobley is in a different stratosphere than Green.

Some Rockets fans will try a different argument. Sure, Mobley has been better than Green. Alperen Sengun and Green combined have been better than Mobley. Surely the Rockets would not have traded for a big man on draft night if they'd already drafted one, right?

Who can say? Once again, hindsight is 20/20. Here's something that's observable at this moment:

Mobley and Sengun would make for a dynamic duo.

In 2024-25, Mobley is shooting 37.2% from long range. He's a sufficient floor spacer to complement Sengun. His defensive versatility would be particularly helpful in covering for Sengun's limitations on that end.

Speaking of defensive versatility...

Ime Udoka likely wishes the Rockets had picked Mobley. He'd be a perfect fit with the Rockets' new defensive culture. This has the potential to go down as a massive blunder.

Can Green change that?

Rockets need production from Green

It's unlikely!

Let's be honest. The chasm between a 4.7 and a 0.6 BPM is nearly insurmountable. It's difficult to envision that Green will ever impact winning as Mobley does.

It's too late for that. It's not too late for Green to continue improving. On the aggregate. he's had a solid 2024-25. If he can continue to build on his success, he can still round into the type of player teams would be happy to draft second overall.

Even if a better player was on the board.