Rockets are closer to title contention than anyone gives them credit for

It's been a rollercoaster 2024-25 season for the Houston Rockets.

Granted, it hasn't been the most varied coaster you ever rode. The Rockets have mostly had ups, followed by one steep down.

(I'm always confused by the rollercoaster metaphor. The fun part is going down, right? The downs should be the ups. A rollercoaster that only goes up is a diaganol elevator).

Still, a six game losing streak is nothing to sneeze at. It's made Rockets fans uncomfortable. Their dreams of overachieving in the postseason feel somewhat dashed.

They shouldn't.

Rockets have been without a full deck

Do you really need this reminder?

Jabari Smith Jr. has been hurt. So has Fred VanVleet. Per CleaningtheGlass, they're both part of the Rockets' best lineup. Smith Jr. is part of 3 of the Rockets' 4 lineups with positive point differentials, and VanVleet is in 2.

That best lineup is a world beater. Pair Smith Jr. and VanVleet with Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun and Dillon Brooks, and the Rockets are +31.1 in 116 possessions. Without that lineup at their disposal, the Rockets have suffered. Granted, the Rockets' best lineup without either has also been formidable. Sengun, Tari Eason, Thompson, Brooks and Jalen Green are +14.6 across 160 possessions.

That's impressive. It's also one (1) positive lineup. That's not enough to win games with the same regularity that the Rockets had before the injuries.

Luckily, help is on the way.

Rockets about to get key players back

Smith Jr. is set to get back to business in the Rockets' first game after the All-Star break. He'll re-debut against the Timberwolves on Friday.

VanVleet is not expected to be available, but he'll be back shortly. Nobody should understate how significant this is.

Smith Jr. is integral to the Rockets' defense. They need his weakside rim protection next to Alperen Sengun. Amen Thompson has performed admirably in his absence, but he can't replace Smith Jr.'s 6'11" frame. The future of this team may see that duo sharing the two forward spots in the starting lineup.

VanVleet is more paramount to the offense. He's had a subpar shooting season, but he's still vital. Specifically, VanVleet's ability to protect the rock is critical for the Rockets. Without him, they've been turning the ball over far more often.

Will the Rockets win the 2024-25 NBA championship? It's unlikely. Still, they're closer than they've looked without two of their starters. This team will have a lot to prove once they get those guys back:

It'll be time to start ascending (or descending) again.