Rockets must treat reunion with fan favorite as a backup plan

The Houston Rockets have some decisions to make in free agency this summer.

The most prominent one involves Fred VanVleet. The Rockets have options. They could accept his team option or let him walk entirely. The most likely option is for the Rockets to decline his option and renegotiate a deal.

That's not the only decision in front of them. Steven Adams is set to hit free agency. A lot of Rockets fans feel like he ought to be a top priority.

If the Rockets are unable to retain him, they may be able to reunite with an old fan favorite.

Rockets could give former big man a look

There's no specific reporting linking Clint Capela to the Rockets. It does feel likely that he'll leave the Hawks. It's time for them to clear the runway for Onyeka Onkongwu, and Capela is aging at 31. It's time for him to find a role as a backup.

So naturally, fans are connecting the dots. The Rockets may be in the market for a backup 5. Why not bring a player who was integral to the construction of the last Rockets title contender?

It makes sense - to an extent. Capela would be a fine choice if the Rockets need him:

But they shouldn't choose him over Adams.

Rockets should work to keep current big

The 2024-25 season was Capela's worst since his 2014-15 rookie year with the Rockets. His -1.0 Box Plus/Minus (BPM) was the second-lowest mark of his career behind his rookie mark of -5.4. If you watched Capela as a rookie, you know he had no idea how to play basketball yet.

By contrast, Adams had a 0.3 BPM in 2024-25. That's a solid mark for a backup big. A deeper look behind the hood suggests even more reason that Adams is the better option for the Rockets.

In terms of Rebound%, the duo was close. Adams collected 21.9% of his available boards to Capela's 21.8%. The difference comes on the offensive glass. Adams had an Offensive Rebound % of 21.8% to Capela's 15.8%.

Conceptually, that was critical to Adams' success with the Rockets. He was able to play in double-big lineups alongside Alperen Sengun largely because that duo could dominate the offensive glass. Opposing defenses had to choose a 4 to either try to stop Sengun from scoring or Adams from rebounding.

Those same principles would roughly apply to Capela. He'll be able to outrebound most wing-ish 4s. Still, he's never been a dominant offensive rebounder like Adams.

Historically, he's been a better defender. It's tough to say whether that's still the case. Capela is showing more signs of decline.

None of which is to say Capela would be a bad choice. It just seems likely that he'd be a marginal downgrade from Adams. If the Rockets can keep their current backup big, they should:

Even if reuniting with Capela is the more sentimental choice.