Rockets turned 2nd overall pick into a star - but it took far too long

The Houston Rockets have made numerous smart decisions during this era, but they made a critical error in the 2021 NBA Draft. They should have selected Evan Mobley over Jalen Green. Luckily, they were able to turn the pick into a star by trading Green for Kevin Durant.

What's done is done. Mobley has had tremendous success with the Cleveland Cavaliers. He's already won a Defensive Player of the Year award, and he'll likely be a perennial candidate.

Just how bad was this decision?

Rockets missed on elite defensive prospect

Gruesome. Heinous. A crime against logic.

This was a bad call. ESPN just called it the Rockets' biggest mistake since 2020. They're right on the mark.

"With the possible exception of Amen Thompson, Mobley has a higher ceiling than any of the Rockets' young building blocks."

-Zach Kram, ESPN

Let's talk career stats. Mobley is averaging 16.4 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 2.9 assists per game with a 2.3 Box Plus/Minus (BPM) and 9.5 Value Over Replacement Player (VORP). Green is averaging 20.1 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 3.4 assists with a -1.1 BPM and a 2.2 VORP.

The advanced stats tell the story. Mobley is a highly impactful player who has shown steady improvement. Green had his best season in 2024-25, but his 0.5 BPM suggests that he's still not impacting the game the way you'd like. There's no justifying the Rockets' 2021 draft day gaffe.

Some will argue that if the Rockets had taken Mobley, they wouldn't have made an extra effort to acquire Sengun. That's a hard case to make without inside information. What we do know is that they could have played together. Mobley shot 37.0% from deep this year. Although there's a massive discrepancy in volume, let it be said that's a higher mark than Green has hit in his career thus far.

There's no sense crying over spilled milk. Mobley is a Cavalier:

More significantly to the Rockets, Green is a Sun.

Rockets correct course with smart trade

Luckily, the Rockets have mostly made great choices in spite of this horrific one. Acquiring so many future Suns picks allowed them to flip Green for Durant without mortaging much of their future.

It's not certain that they'd be in a better situation with Mobley. Since he's - you know - good, it may have been a challenge to tank their way to Amen Thompson with Mobley on the roster. It's hard to make the case that picking the better player would have been a worse call, but there's a butterfly effect that leaves much to be considered if Houston takes Mobley.

They wouldn't be trading him for Kevin Durant, that's for sure.