Rockets' win over Suns answers this tough question

Rafael Stone's Houston Rockets have a way of tying their fate to another team.

First, it was the Nets. Rockets fans watched their lottery odds closely. Eventually, the ceded the third overall pick - and Stone traded most of their remaining picks for a larger bundle of Suns picks.

When Houston owned Brooklyn's picks, they were widely linked to Mikal Bridges. Now, it's Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. It seems like a consensus that the Rockets will look to acquire one (if not both) of the Suns' stars in exchange for most (if not all) of their draft capital back this summer.

They should think twice.

Rockets' win over Suns gives pause to offseason planning

The notion of replacing Jalen Green with Booker is supposed to be particularly appealing. That's a win-now upgrade that should vault the Rockets to title contention, right?

Then why did Green outplay Booker in Houston's Monday victory over the Suns?

Green had 29 points on 8/16 shooting from the field to Booker's 19 on 7/15 shooting. Green had a relatively modest 4 assists, but that's misleading. He was making quality passing reads all night. Green certainly had several potential assists that teammates did not convert.

Granted, we shouldn't take a one game sample size as the gospel. Throughout 2024-25, Devin Booker is averaging 26.0 points and 6.8 assists per game to Green's 21.0 and 4.4.

Those surface level stats strongly favor Booker. Some underlying metrics suggest that the gap between the duo is narrow. Booker's Box Plus/Minus (BPM) of 0.7 is hardly ahead of Green's 0.3 mark. Green (35.5%) is actually shooting more efficiently from three-point range than Booker (34.5%) as well.

Booker is barely better than Green in 2024-25, and he's six years older. Speaking of older...

Durant is 36. LeBron James has set new expectations about player longevity. Truthfully, we don't know that Durant can thrive up to 40. Any season could be the first that he looks like he's lost a step.

I've advocated for Durant in this space before. Given his age, he should cost less than Booker. Durant could offer the Rockets an opportunity to expand their title window without decimating their long-term outlook.

Still, it feels like there may be a better course of action.

The Rockets should let the Suns sink

There's a question that gets posed whenever star trade targets from underperforming teams look to be available:

If they couldn't help them win, why would they help us?

If Durant and Booker can't muster a play-in appearance, why would adding either to the playoff-bound Rockets radically change their outlook?

That's a slight oversimplification. Either of these guys may be reinvigorated in a new circumstance. They may have stronger chemistry with the Rockets.

They may not.

The Rockets are young. They shouldn't be in any rush. Green still has the upside to be better than Booker.

Durant could be worth a look, but Stone should be playing hardball. Set a firm price, and if it's too low for the Suns, that's fine. The Rockets should be happy to hang onto their picks while their ship is sinking. They'll be forced to move Durant anyway, and finding a way to replace Kevin Durant and improve will not be an easy task. The Sun's outlook is bleak:

That suits the Rockets just fine.