The Rockets don't need to worry about Alperen Sengun's offense

The Houston Rockets landed a star player in the 2021 NBA Draft. They didn't do it with the second overall pick.

Forgive me if I'm overly cynical, but it's hard to imagine Jalen Green achieving NBA stardom at this point. He is, to borrow from the Hot Hot Heat, consistently inconsistent. In the aggregate, the result is consistently poor.

This piece isn't about Green. It's about the aforementioned star. The Rockets acquired the 16th pick at the cost of a handful of heavily protected firsts that will probably convey as seconds. They selected Alperen Sengun with that pick, and the rest is history.

He's been a dynamo. By 2024, Sengun is widely regarded as the Rockets' best player. That said, he has not had a perfect season in 2024-25. Sengun's offensive efficiency has waned.

Should the Rockets be concerned?

Rockets' Sengun will find his touch

Specifically, the issue is that Sengun has (temporarily, I suspect) lost his touch around the rim. He's hitting 57.1% of his shots between 0 and 3 feet. That's a career low of over 10%.

What happened? Was Sengun's offensive touch cursed by a Karakoncolos?* Will he ever regain his form?

*Basically an evil Turkish spirit. Google is your friend.

Let's look for a more scientific explanation. Sengun's Defensive Box Plus/Minus (DBPM) of 3.1 is by far a career-high. Sengun has progressed in one area while regressing in another, and there is likely a causal relationship between those variables.

Defense is effort. That's the driving force behind playing it well. Sengun was not blessed with long arms or exceptional lateral quickness. He's been a positive defender in 2024-25 due to his exceptional understanding of positioning, and his willingness to hustle to the right position.

That leaves him with less in the tank for the offensive end of the floor. This feels like the most plausible explanation for his decline. It's not the only one.

I lied. I'm going to talk about Green again - but not just Green. The Rockets have not provided Sengun with an optimal offensive environment. That's not an indictment on the front office. The Rockets have been in the process of figuring out what works, and what doesn't. Before this season's defensive leap, Sengun had given them reason to doubt his status as a cornerstone player.

Now that he's caught up on that end, it's time to have that conversation. Sengun would be optimized if surrounded by shooters. The Rockets have one of the worst shooting rosters in the league. With suspect floor spacers around him, opposing defenses don't mind converging on Sengun on the low block. He's the focal point of the scouting report, and nobody on this roster is a sufficient safety valve to take that pressure away from him.

It's easy to identify the problems:

Let's talk about solutions.

Rockets and Sengun will find solutions

Development is seldom linear in the NBA. It's fair to make strides in one area while taking a step back in another. Sengun is just 22. Nobody should be shocked that he hasn't "put it all together" yet.

Perhaps he'll eventually need to dedicate slightly less effort to the defensive end. The Rockets have arguably the best defensive wing rotation in the NBA. Sengun can't be an outright liability, but he doesn't need to be one of their keys to the game on that end - his offensive responsibilities take priority. Alternatively, it may be that Sengun will learn to balance his efforts on both ends.

Still, this front office also needs to recognize the need to pair Sengun with a dynamic lead ball-handler. The Rockets need two stars. As long as Sengun is the only credible shot creator on this roster, defenses will do whatever they can to ensure that his efficiency suffers.

Keeping Amen Thompson is vital if Sengun is going to mitigate his defensive workload. Tari Eason serves a similar purpose, and Jabari Smith Jr. remains a strong potential fit as a floor spacer and competent defender. Otherwise, the Rockets should make everyone and everything available for a star guard:

As Sengun finds his footing alongside him, his star will shine again.