Spurs' Finals run gives Rockets painful reminder of what could've been

The Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs are two historically successful teams that recently went through difficult rebuilds. Now, both teams have come out the other side. The Rockets have made back-to-back playoff appearances, and the Spurs are in the NBA Finals.

Even though both rebuilds are completed, most NBA fans would still rather be in San Antonio’s position going forward. Some of that is because the Spurs have made smart front office decisions and developed their young players well. But the biggest difference between Houston and San Antonio is much simpler than that: luck.

San Antonio hit the Draft Lottery jackpot

In 2023, the Spurs had the third-best odds in the NBA Draft Lottery, while the Rockets had the second-best odds. San Antonio won the lottery and drafted Victor Wembanyama. Houston dropped to No. 4 and selected Amen Thompson. That lottery result changed everything.

In 2024, Houston finally got some lottery luck of its own. The Spurs had the fifth-best lottery odds and moved up one slot to the fourth overall pick. The Rockets’ pick had the ninth-best odds, but they jumped all the way to No. 3.

Unfortunately for Houston, that luck came in a draft class that was widely considered one of the weakest in NBA history. The Rockets selected Reed Sheppard, while the Spurs came away with Stephon Castle one pick later.

In the most recent draft, San Antonio had the eighth-best odds, yet moved all the way up to No. 2. Houston had the ninth-best odds, but traded its pick to acquire Kevin Durant. The Spurs selected Dylan Harper with their pick.

That is not to say the Rockets came away empty-handed. Amen Thompson has the potential to become a superstar, and Reed Sheppard still looks like he can become a quality NBA player. Houston has plenty of young talent and can still become a championship-level roster.

But the Spurs moved up in three straight drafts and came away with Wembanyama, Castle and Harper. Wembanyama is already in the “best player in the world” conversation, Castle received All-NBA votes this year, and Harper made First Team All-Rookie.

In 2024, Houston had the opportunity to select Castle instead of Sheppard. But even if Castle and Sheppard had switched places, the Spurs would still be in the better long-term position. 

A lot of that boils down to the mere presence of Wembanyama. Any team that won the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery would have drafted the 7’4” center. That does not take anything away from San Antonio. The Spurs still deserve credit for building around him properly. But landing Wembanyama was the result of lottery luck.

The Rockets have built a quality NBA team. This is still one of the more promising cores in the NBA, and they can still develop into a contender.

But the Spurs making the Finals is still a painful reminder of what could have been. Houston had a lengthier rebuild, yet never got the same luck San Antonio did.

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