The Rockets aren't ready to move on from Fred VanVleet

Finding a Houston Rockets fan ready to move on from Fred VanVleet wouldn't take long.

That's understandable. VanVleet is having a challenging season. His 51.4 True Shooting % (TS%) is his lowest mark since his rookie campaign. That includes a maddening 32.9% on 7.6 attempts per game.

More broadly, Rockets fans want to give the keys to their talented young core. VanVleet is 30. The prevailing assumption is that he won't be part of this team's future. Why not cut the cord now?

There are plenty of good answers to that question.

Rockets aren't ready to move on from VanVleet

VanVleet is a confusing player.

Sure, his efficiency has been suboptimal. He still finds a way to help the Rockets win. Per CleaningtheGlass, his +3.0 Efficiency Differential is the second-highest on the squad among all high-minute players, only trailing Alperen Sengun.

The Rockets' best lineup features Fred VanVleet. Their third-through-seventh best lineups feature Fred VanVleet. The team's second-best group includes the starters with Amen Thompson in his place. That unit is +9 across 101 possessions. That's great, but the team's best lineup subs Thompson for Jalen Green, and that lineup is +31.1 in 116 possessions.

Some will suggest that the data indicates that next year, the Rockets should let VanVleet walk in free agency and slide Thompson into his spot. That's an option for any Rockets fan who's comfortable sliding in the standings. If Houston's best lineup was +9 instead of +31.1, they wouldn't be second in the Western Conference.

What's the solution?

Rockets shouldn't rush into major changes

Let's take a moment to acknowledge Jalen Green. He has been sensational lately. The Rockets would be wise to put the ball in his hands more often.

He still needs a backcourt partner. VanVleet is a good fit. His low turnover rate has been integral to Houston's success in 2024-25.

Fans will push back on that notion. They'll posit that more dynamic playmakers tend to have higher turnover rates. That's true. The league's best playmakers turn the ball over often because they're willing to take risks - they'll often pay off, but not always.

VanVleet is not one of the best playmakers in the NBA. That's not a fair standard for him. He's an organizer who keeps the ball secure.

That's all the Rockets need him to be.

Winning the possession battle has been essential to the Rockets this year. They crash the offensive glass, seldom turn the ball over, and get more field goal attempts than their opponents as a result.

That's not to say they need to be tethered to VanVleet forever. Thompson could be his heir apparent. There's still hope for Reed Sheppard too, although his -10.7 Efficiency Differential suggests that he still needs some time to marinate.

When he's ready, the Rockets may move on from VanVleet.