What the Rockets Need to Do to Win Game 7 vs. the Warriors

After two emphatic showings in Game 5 and Game 6 vs. the Golden State Warriors, the Houston Rockets are still alive. If you had told me five days ago that the Rockets would push the series to seven, I would have dismissed the idea. Things were looking particularly bleak after the Rockets lost both games 3 and 4 on the road, the former in which Jimmy Butler didn't even play.

And yet, the Rockets have completely shifted the momentum in their favor. In these two elimination games, they have stumbled upon a winning formula. From Fred VanVleet truly being in "rare form" to the advantage that Steven Adams has provided the Rockets size and rebounding-wise, the Rockets have found "The Blueprint" for success. These performances have uncovered several strengths to build on in order to prevent them from getting "ethered" in Game 7.

1. The Rockets Must Continue to Exploit the Warriors' Size

Heading into the series, it was clear that the Warriors' lack of size would be vital in the Rockets' strategy. The only truly serviceable big the squad has is a 6'6 Draymond Green who, while a gritty competitor, shouldn't be enough to hold down the fort.

Steven Adams' performance in Game 1 unveiled just how vulnerable the Warriors' lack of size left them. In just 19 minutes, he posted 12 rebounds, and his minutes were an overwhelming positive for the Rockets. For most of the series, he had been a formidable paint presence, but the Rockets' offense just hadn't been able to step in other facets of the game.

The culmination of Adams' stellar contributions on both ends of the floor and a reinvigorated Rockets' offense was simply too much for the Warriors to handle in Games 5 and 6. The fact that the Warriors had to employ Hack-A-Adams in the latter game to slow down the Rockets' offense was a testament to just how mismatched the teams were.

The Warriors' small lineup has also been advantageous for the other half of the Rockets' signature double big lineup, Alperen Sengun. Sengun's aggressive post play coupled with his board work has been a driving force behind the Rockets' offensive improvement. Between Game 5 and 6, he has averaged 18 ppg, 11.5 rpg, and 7.5 apg.

Sengun is doing what needs to be done against a flawed frontcourt. But what is particularly promising from these numbers is his passing. It's emblematic of a Rockets team that is meshing and an offense that is far more fluid than what we had seen in the series' beginning games.

For the Rockets to have a chance in Game 7, they must return to this double big lineup which has completely changed the complexion of this series.

2. The Rockets Should Continue to Force Stephen Curry's Teammates to Beat Them

The Rockets' defensive strategy in Game 7 must once again be centered around containing the Warriors' star players, particularly Stephen Curry. With both Curry and Butler having a catalog of big performances, the Warriors are undoubtedly at an advantage in terms of experience. Forcing the rather lackluster supporting cast around these two to beat them would allow the Rockets to minimize the effect of the experience gap.

Whereas in the past there would have been a wide array of assets like KD and Klay Thompson who could punish the Rockets should they target Curry, the Rockets have been able to afford leaving his teammates open this series. In Game 5 and Game 6, this strategy worked to a tee with Curry scoring 13 points on 33 FG% and 29 points on 39 FG% respectively.

Aside from just how well this has worked tactically, it also seems like the right choice considering Curry's history with the Rockets. The Rockets would feel far more assured if their season's hopes depended on the likes of Gary Payton II, Quinten Post, and Buddy Hield rather than a player who seemingly relishes in humiliating them.

3. Either Fred VanVleet or Jalen Green Needs to Deliver

The Rockets' starting backcourt has been a roller coaster all season long. To a different extent, Jalen Green and Fred VanVleet have been oscillating between borderline atrocious performances to masterful displays of basketball. This has held true to some extent in the playoffs as well, but interestingly enough both guards have had the opposite trajectory.

Green has overall gotten worse as the series has progressed, averaging 14.2 ppg on 48.7 TS%. His recurring inefficiency and questionable decision making has been detrimental to the Rockets, partially contributing to each of their three losses. This has remained present in these last two victories but surprisingly has been mitigated by the sudden resurgence of Fred VanVleet. Throughout the series, he is averaging 19 ppg on 63.6 TS%. He has been particularly great in the last three games, averaging 26.7 ppg on 67 3P% and 59 FG%.

Aside from just his incredible shooting, VanVleet has showed great hustle and has been a great playmaker. He has been making impressive reads and has been finding his teammates for open threes. VanVleet's performance has truly opened up the playbook for the Rockets and is why they're even going to Game 7 in the first place.

The manner in which Fred VanVleet's performance has driven the Rockets to these two convincing victories is illustrative of one thing above all: how important it is for at least one of their starting guards to do well. One of the backcourt doing well is obviously not an immediate recipe for success. The Game 4 loss is indicative of that. However, their losses in Game 1 and Game 3 are illustrative of how bad play from both VanVleet and Green are sure-fire ways to lose.

With Jalen Green having played four bad games, one would have to believe that he's due for a good Game 7. Nonetheless, should he fall short again, it is imperative that Fred VanVleet continue his dominance.

Otherwise, frankly speaking, the Rockets may be doomed from the start.