1 Change the Rockets need to make to their starting lineup

The Houston Rockets are 6-4. Fans should be celebrating. If they finished the season with their current win percentage, the Rockets would be a playoff lock.

Yet, something about their start feels fraudulent. The Rockets' offensive system is hard on the eyes, several of their young players are underperforming, and they've barely beaten some mediocre teams. The Rockets are winning games by sheer force of will.

Tari Eason brings a lot of that will to the table. His energy is invaluable to the Rockets. He comes off the bench and changes the entire dynamic of the game.

Is it time to insert him into the starting lineup?

Eason is among the Rockets' most productive players

When discussing lineup changes, the first logical question pertains to who Eason would replace.

Jabari Smith Jr. is the prime candidate. He's been disappointing in 2024-25. A comparison of his and Eason's statistical output practically begs the Rockets to make a switch.

Eason is averaging 25.3 points, 10.6 rebounds, 4.3 steals, and 2.3 blocks per 100 possessions. He has a True Shooting % (TS%) of 61.9. Smith Jr. is averaging 19.8 points, 11.4 rebounds, 0.6 steals, and 0.8 blocks per 100 possessions with a 53.2 TS%.

Eason's Box Plus/Minus (BPM) of 8.1 ranks 4th in the entire NBA. Let that sink in. It goes Jokic, Gilgeous-Alexander, Tatum - Eason.

Jabari Smith Jr.'s BPM is -1.6. So, according to the most reliable aggregate impact metric, Eason is among the most impactful players in the NBA, and Smith Jr. is less productive than an average NBA player.

Is this a no-brainer?

Eason plays vital role for Rockets

No.

There are arguments to be made against the shift. It's fair to wonder whether Eason can maintain his outlandish energy levels with the starting unit. Increasing his minutes could decrease his impact.

Moreover, Eason came off the bench at LSU. He's comfortable as a sparkplug. Why rock the boat? Eason is dominating against second units. That gives the Rockets an edge - why take it away?

Related question: why not explore Eason's potential?

Nobody can answer any of the questions posed here besides Eason himself. If he can impact winning as he currently does against starters for 30 minutes per game, the Rockets may have snagged a star with the 17th pick in the 2022 NBA draft. Shouldn't they find out?

This is a basic function of any workplace. When an employee is exceeding expectations at one level, they should be promoted if there's a promotion in play. When an employee is failing expectations, it's reasonable to demote them. That's all that's happening here.

If the Rockets switch Smith Jr. for Eason in the starting lineup and Eason's impact wains, they'll have found a valuable data point. They'll know that Eason is a role player and that he isn't a viable starter. If he's more?

The Rockets could punch a ticket to the playoffs by making the move.