Ranking the 5 best Houston Rockets this season

The Houston Rockets, with two games to go, have clinched the worst record in the league. The franchise’s first season without James Harden and Daryl Morey, the linchpins of their eight consecutive postseason appearances from 2013 to 2020, has been the NBA equivalent of A Series of Unfortunate Events.

The season went from bad to worse at just about every juncture as injuries, ineffectiveness, and injustices derailed even the faintest attempts to be a competent team. Four players will play more than 1200 minutes, in a season of 3456 non-overtime minutes, and only two players will surpass 50 games played.

The Rockets were hit incredibly hard by the availability bug this season, which makes it difficult to discern who were their best and worst players. However, every team, no matter the record, has a best player.

How to evaluate the five best Houston Rockets

To determine who were the best five Rockets an arbitrary playing time cutoff had to be made, so only players that managed 600 minutes with the Rockets made the cut. This total of 12 players includes the likes of Victor Oladipo, Kevin Porter Jr, and Kelly Olynyk but sheds the 17 other players who suited up for the Rockets this season.

From this group of 12, I took their net plus/minus, total win shares, player efficiency rating, win shares per 48 minutes, box score plus/minus, and value over replacement player and calculated each player’s Z-score in the category before adding that total up to determine who has performed the best this season compared to their peers. This cohort of statistics, outside of win shares and value over replacement player, is hardly influenced by court time so this best captures who on a per-minute basis has performed best for the Rockets.

The not-so-honorable mentions or the players who finished twelfth through sixth are; P.J. Tucker (12th), Kevin Porter (11th), Danuel House (10th), Victor Oladipo (9th), John Wall (8th), Sterling Brown (7th), and Eric Gordon (6th). The two surprises on this list are John Wall and Kevin Porter Jr but their solid points per game averages of 20.6 for Wall and 16.6 for Porter are largely to the detriment of the team because of their poor shooting efficiency.

Let’s not get too caught up in the weeds over the minutiae of the ranking system, it’s as scientific as I care to make it, and let’s get to the top five Houston Rockets from the 2020-21 season.

Next: #5

#5 Best Houston Rocket: Kenyon Martin Jr

Kenyon Martin Jr has no doubt made Kenyon Martin Sr very proud this season. Selected in the second round by the Sacramento Kings in the 2020 NBA draft, Martin was traded to the Rockets for cash and a 2021 second-round pick before signing a four-year contract with the Rockets and beginning his NBA journey in the G-League for the Rio Grande Vipers.

Players of Martin’s profile hardly ever make a dent in the NBA and his rookie season has beat all of the expectations. He’s fourth on the team in win shares and second in win shares per 48 minutes for players who have played more than 600 minutes.

What has fueled Martin’s surprise rookie season has been his efficient shooting. He’s converted 56.6-percent of his 2-point attempts and 39.5-percent of his 3-pointers which are both comfortably above league average.

Now, Martin isn’t a budding All-Star by any means and his lack of size could be an issue going forward. Listed at 6’6, Martin has primarily split time between the small forward and power forward positions.

If he is going to make it as a small forward he will need to improve his perimeter defense, off the dribble shooting, and playmaking, which is no small task. However, if he is asked to play power forward he’ll need to develop the ability to defend the post and become a better rebounder.

It should be noted that Martin’s impressive 3-point shooting might also be a mirage. He isn’t a horrible free throw shooter but he’s slightly below average and free throw shooting is the best future indicator of 3-point shooting.

Martin is still only 20-years-old and his ability to finish at the rim won’t go away anytime soon. A good second season for him would see him simply not regressing. However, if his 3-point shot is for real, then his upside grows considerably.

The Rockets did well to get Martin for virtually nothing and at the very least he’ll be a solid NBA rotation player. With the very best outcome seeing him develop into a legitimate 3 and D stalwart.

Next: #4

#4 Best Houston Rocket: David Nwaba

Of all the injuries that the Rockets have had to suffer through, the wrist injury that effectively ended David Nwaba‘s season has to rank among the most impactful. Nwaba isn’t a superstar but he’s an excellent defensive player that knows his role on offense.

Nwaba is set to become a free agent this offseason but the Rockets should work hard to keep him in the fold. His ability to cover the best wing scorers in the league is an increasingly valuable skill and he impacts winning in a way the boxscore doesn’t pick up.

Before Nwaba went out with injury, he featured in 30 of the Rockets’ first 37 games where the team posted a 112.2 defensive rating. Since he went down the Rockets’ defensive rating has ballooned to 119.4.

Nwaba’s absence isn’t the only reason the Rockets’ defense tanked but when he was on the court they managed to post a defensive rating of 110.5. While defense is his calling card, Nwaba manages to make his limited offensive profile work by taking the right kinds of shots.

As a non-shooter, Nwaba eschews the mid-range and does most of his damage within 10 feet of the basket. He endured a horrible season shooting the 3-ball, only converting 27-percent of his attempts and 20.7-percent of his corner threes.

Nwaba is not a sharpshooter but it is almost impossible for him to shoot any worse from 3-point range than he did this season. With all the value he provides on defense, if he’s anywhere near average as a 3-point shooter he becomes one of the most valuable rotation players in the NBA.

Nwaba was great for the Rockets this year and he left a fair amount on the table. The Rockets should make him one of their chief priorities this offseason. He’s a winning player. After losing the most games in the league, he’s exactly the type of player the franchise needs.

Next: #3

#3 Best Houston Rocket: Jae’Sean Tate

If the Rockets were in the playoff picture Jae’Sean Tate would have a real shot at landing the Rookie of the Year award, but instead, he’ll have to settle for the All-Rookie first team and the Rockets MVP. The question you might be asking is, how is it possible that the Rockets’ MVP is only third on this list?

Tate has been productive this season but his best ability has been availability. He has over a 600 minute lead on Christian Wood for the team lead in minutes played and he’ll be the only Rocket to eclipse 60 games played.

The lone constant for the Rockets this season has been Tate and as a rookie, he has done admirably. His combination of defense, finishing at the rim, and, when called upon, playmaking has him as the Rockets’ team leader in win shares.

There are still holes in his game but if Tate were on a better team he’d be lauded as one of the best rotation players in the league. He’s an efficient scorer within ten feet, doesn’t turn the ball over, and can defend multiple positions.

He’s the perfect player next to an offensive superstar and as he develops he could offer much more. The Rockets are better when Tate is on the court, which is a rarity for NBA rookies, regardless of their age.

He’s locked in for two more seasons and could end up being a foundational player. His skillset won’t see him drop 20 points a game consistently, but he does everything else well. In another timeline, Jae’Sean Tate for Rookie of the Year.

Next: #2

#2 Best Houston Rocket: Christian Wood

The claim to be the best Rocket was incredibly close and it is shocking that Christian Wood didn’t secure the distinction. However, he has blown through all reasonable expectations in his first year in Houston.

He is averaging 21 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks in 32.3 minutes per game on 51.4-percent shooting from the field and 37.4-percent shooting from 3-point range. Wood is the total package and on talent, he is almost certainly the best Rocket, although John Wall would probably argue with that.

The main reason Wood didn’t claim the number one spot on the list is that he hasn’t been nearly as efficient as a scorer since he returned from his ankle injury. Over his first 17 games, he shot 55.8-percent from the field and 42.1-percent from 3-point range before missing the next 17 games.

Since Wood has returned to the court his shot has been off and he has only shot 48.3-percent from the field and 34.6-percent from 3-point range. While those are fine numbers in their own right, they’re nowhere near the level he was at the beginning of the season. Wood has been done no favors as his perimeter running mates have been a revolving door.

He started the season playing next to James Harden, John Wall, and Eric Gordon, only to see Harden be swapped out for Victor Oladipo. Just as the quartet of Wood, Gordon, Oladipo, and Wall was finding its groove he went down with his ankle injury. Then, as he was recuperating, Gordon was lost for the season.

When he came back he had to learn how to play with the newly-promoted Kevin Porter Jr, then Oladipo was traded and finally, Wall was lost for the season with a hamstring injury. Wood needs to be set up by his teammates to thrive on offense and the Rockets just never had any consistency in the backcourt and eventually, they ran out of quality.

Wood is an incredibly talented player but his second-half struggles show his limitations. At this stage, he’s not capable of carrying a team’s offense. He is a late bloomer and still only 25-years-old so that could still be in the cards down the line.

If it wasn’t for all of the roster upheaval and the ankle injury Wood would have easily claimed the first spot. However, much like the Rockets season, everything that could go wrong for Wood did.

Next: #1

#1 Best Houston Rocket: Kelly Olynyk

Kelly Olynyk claiming the number one spot says an awful lot about the Rockets’ and Olynyk’s season. Olynyk has been truly amazing for the Rockets since he came over from the Miami Heat as part of the Victor Oladipo trade.

In 24 games he’s averaging 18.9 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game, which would all be full-season career highs for him, on 56.1-percent shooting from the field and 38.2-percent from 3-point. Olynyk has posted career-best metrics with the Rockets and in his brief stint has played like an All-Star.

Olynyk is an impending free agent and with the way he has played in Houston, it’s possible he could land himself a hefty contract in a free agent market that lacks serious star power. Should the Rockets pony up to keep him around? Probably not, but if they can land him for around $16 million per season it’s a deal worth doing.

The reality is that Olynyk is just going through a hot stretch and over the course of a full season his shooting will come back down to Earth. It shouldn’t be lost on Rockets’ fans but in his first 43 games with Miami, he was on pace to have the worst season of his career.

Olynyk has been the best Rocket because he has been at his absolute personal best as a Rocket. If the sample were larger, Olynyk would post a few clunkers and his metrics would begin to settle around his career averages.

Christian Wood is the best Rocket, but Kelly Olynyk has made the most of his time in Houston. In a season where you’re the worst team in the league, it shouldn’t be a surprise when your best player comes out of left field or in this case, from Miami.