Houston Rockets: Which NBA Draft prospect is the best fit at no. 2?

The Houston Rockets have a tough decision to make with the number two pick in the 2021 NBA draft. If the Detroit Pistons select Cade Cunningham with the first pick, then the Rockets have to decide if Evan Mobley, Jalen Green, or Jalen Suggs is the right man to lead the franchise forward.

While talent will be the main driver in the Rockets’ decision-making, how each of these players fits into the current core will weigh on the front office’s mind. As the Philadelphia 76ers tanked their way through “the process,” in the early to mid-2010s, their draft strategy was simply to take the best available player regardless of fit.

Meanwhile, the Atlanta Hawks focused their rebuilding efforts by finding players who complemented each other. Both strategies have been effective in building winning basketball teams, but if these playoffs are any indication, then drafting for fit is just as important as drafting for talent.

How the Houston Rockets will determine who fits best

If the Rockets view the Hawks’ fit-based draft strategy as the best way to build a championship roster then that changes their big board dramatically. Another factor that will impact the prospect of best fit, is how the Rockets internally grade their own roster.

For instance, if the Rockets believe Kevin Porter Jr is a future All-Star, then finding someone who can play alongside him becomes paramount. Conversely, if the front office believes Porter’s future is as a role player, then finding someone who can supplant him becomes an option.

Instead of pretending to know the Rockets’ internal grades of their own roster to decide which prospect is the best fit, let’s pick the prospect that will be the best fit depending on the possible front office grades of the current roster.

As it stands, the two most important players to the Rockets’ future are Christian Wood and Kevin Porter Jr. How the Rockets view these two’s future will determine which player fits best. These are the prospects that fit best based on how the Rockets value their two future cornerstones.

Next: How do the Rockets value Christian Wood? 

Houston Rockets: Which NBA Draft prospect is the best fit at no. 2 with Christian Wood

Christian Wood’s first season in Houston was as good as anyone could have hoped for. He averaged 21 points and 9.6 rebounds a game on 51.4-percent shooting from the field and 37.4-percent from 3-point range. His combination of inside-out scoring from the center position puts him in a rare class.

While Wood’s maiden season in Houston was excellent, there’s ample room for debate over his long-term upside. He could continue to grow his game and become a superstar, he could remain at the All-Star level he’s shown, or he could regress into an average player.

Depending on what the Rockets’ front office believes is the most likely outcome for Wood the prospect that fits their roster changes dramatically. These are the prospects that fit best depending on each of those outcomes for Christian Wood.

Houston Rockets: Which NBA Draft prospect is the best fit at no. 2 if Christian Wood is a superstar: Jalen Suggs

If Wood continues to blossom and becomes a superstar the Rockets will need to surround him with tough perimeter defenders, smart passers, and guards who are lethal in the pick and roll. Jalen Suggs would be the perfect complimentary piece to get the most out of a superstar version of Christian Wood.

Suggs is a tough defender who would help protect Wood from being stretched too thin on defense. While Wood flashed potential as a weak side defender, his offensive game is what separates him at the center position.

Suggs is an incredible north-south athlete that would provide Wood with a perfect pick and roll partner. The threat of Suggs exploding to the rim would give Wood ample pick and pop opportunities and that same threat from Wood will give Suggs enough runway to consistently attack the rim.

While Evan Mobley and Jalen Green possess the most upside, Suggs is the perfect high-end number two. He’s a well-rounded player that is a perfect secondary option on offense with the potential to be a bit more if his jump shot improves.

Houston Rockets: Which NBA Draft prospect is the best fit at no. 2 if Christian Wood is an All-Star: Jalen Green

Now, if what Rockets fans saw from Christian Wood in year one is what he is going to be going forward then the best fit for the Rockets is Jalen Green. An All-Star version of Wood is nothing to sneeze at but if the Rockets want to be real championship contenders they’ll need a go-to scoring option from the backcourt.

Green might have the highest potential of any player in this draft and his ability to be a lethal isolation scorer is not in doubt. The rest of his game will take time to refine, but from day one, Green should be a 20 points per game threat.

Although Green’s passing lags behind Suggs, his jump shot and scoring ability should still create space for Wood to thrive. And the spacing that Wood can create for others based on his 3-point shooting will allow Green ample space to attack the basket off the dribble and on cuts.

If Wood is just an All-Star, the Rockets will need a superstar in the backcourt if they want to compete for titles. Jalen Green has superstar upside, while Suggs has super-sidekick potential.

Houston Rockets: Which NBA Draft prospect is the best fit at no. 2 if Christian Wood is an average player: Evan Mobley

If Christian Wood’s first season in Houston was a mirage and he is more of an average player then the Rockets shouldn’t hesitate to make Evan Mobley their center of the future. Mobley is the number two rated prospect for a reason and his defensive upside far outpaces Wood’s.

Mobley’s upside is tremendous and he could become one of the top centers in the league. While he’ll never be Nikola Jokic on offense or Rudy Gobert on defense, he has the ability to be plus on both ends of the court.

Two-way centers are crucial because it limits the effectiveness of small ball and bully ball for your opponents. Also, it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that Mobley and Wood could co-exist on the court together.

However, there is an added benefit in drafting Mobley as it would allow the Rockets to trade Wood and recoup some assets. Remember, the Rockets are only selecting Mobley if they believe Wood is an average player, so trading him wouldn’t be a non-starter for the front office.

Next: How do the Rockets value Kevin Porter Jr?

Houston Rockets: Which NBA Draft prospect is the best fit at no. 2 if Kevin Porter

The Rockets landing Kevin Porter Jr from the Cleveland Cavaliers was a shrewd piece of business by Rafael Stone. Porter flashed tantalizing potential in Cleveland but the relationship between him and the organization deteriorated to the point where he was moved for a second-round pick, which is next to nothing by NBA standards.

The Rockets were the benefactors of the fallout in Cleveland and after letting Porter run wild in the G-League he came up and played like one would expect a 20-year-old to play in the NBA. There were tremendous highs, like his 50 point outburst against the Milwaukee Bucks, but also a lot of lows, he shot under 40-percent from the field in 11 of 26 games.

The range of possible outcomes for Porter are all over the place, but it appears unlikely that he’ll ever be an MVP candidate, which means his ultimate upside is that of an All-Star. These are the best fits for the Rockets with the number two pick depending on how they value Kevin Porter Jr.

Houston Rockets: Which NBA Draft prospect is the best fit at no. 2 if Kevin Porter Jr is an All-Star: Evan Mobley

If the Rockets believe that Kevin Porter Jr. is a future All-Star then figuring out who to draft is difficult. Do you pair him with Jalen Green to form the league’s most dynamic young backcourt? Or do you select Evan Mobley and have a decade-plus of a new-age Shaq and Kobe?

Or maybe the best answer is to go and select Jalen Suggs who would be a perfect fit as the second guard next to Porter. If Rafael Stone and company believe that Porter is a future All-Star then they need to select Evan Mobley.

No matter what your opinion of Christian Wood is, the possibility of having two future All-Stars who are both under the age of 22 is too good to pass up. The Rockets would be set in the backcourt and frontcourt for the next decade.

With the Brooklyn Nets’ picks coming through the pipeline, the Rockets would be in a prime position to land another star and form a big three just as the duo hits their primes. If Kevin Porter Jr is an All-Star, then Evan Mobley is the right man at number two.

Houston Rockets: Which NBA Draft prospect is the best fit at no. 2 if Kevin Porter Jr is an average player: Jalen Suggs

If Kevin Porter Jr. is viewed as an average NBA player by the Rockets front office then it makes sense to try and maximize Porter’s skillset. Most NBA players aren’t average across the board but rather they have strengths and weaknesses and on aggregate they’re average.

Jalen Suggs would be the best fit to help paper over Porter’s weaknesses and accentuate his strengths. The truth is, an average NBA player can give you above-average production if the environment is right.

A backcourt of Suggs and Porter would have the right combination of defense, passing, and shot-making to be an above-average backcourt. It might not be a championship backcourt but it also wouldn’t hold the franchise back from competing for titles if the right pieces are around it.

Houston Rockets: Which NBA Draft prospect is the best fit at no. 2 if Kevin Porter Jr is a bust: Jalen Green

If the Rockets believe that Kevin Porter Jr is a bust then they need to find a replacement for him right away. Giving reps to a player you don’t believe in is a waste of time for everyone involved.

If the Rockets don’t believe that Porter is a part of their future then they should look to draft Jalen Green to be their lead guard of the future. With John Wall and Eric Gordon still in the picture, the Rockets have the ability to phase in Green at the pace they want.

The only way the Rockets are getting a championship is if they land a star and if Porter isn’t even an average player in their eyes then they need to find one as soon as possible. The NBA is a perimeter-oriented league and without some real dynamism in the backcourt, it’s near impossible to build a contender.

Green is the most dynamic player in this draft and his long-term potential as a go-to scorer makes him easy to build around. Finding players that fit around a scorer is a lot easier than finding a scorer.