Alperen Sengun's injury has silver lining that could propel Rockets to new heights

Alperen Şengün is going to miss time, and Houston Rockets fans hate it.

According to NBA Insider Marc Stein, the Rockets are bracing for ten to 14 days without their offensive hub after the ankle twist he suffered in Dallas. Given Houston's schedule density, that likely means a ten-game absence, give or take.

Houston has already felt it, going 1-2 in the three games since the injury. The spacing looks different. The late-clock options feel clunkier. With Fred VanVleet already out, losing their point-center is as tough a blow as there is.

But here’s the twist: this Şengün-less stint has the potential to be the most useful two weeks of the Rockets’ season. Think short-term pain, long-term gain.

Not because Şengün isn’t essential. He is. Not because Houston is secretly better without him. They’re not. This is not a “Ewing Theory” candidate.

It’s useful because it forces a contender-in-the-making to do the one thing it’s been politely avoiding: take the training wheels off its young creators.

Alperen Şengün’s absence doesn’t remove points; it erases the map

When your point guard is out, most teams lose organization. When your center is also your de facto point guard, you lose the entire offensive map.

That’s what Şengün has been for Houston all season, especially with VanVleet sidelined: the steady hand that keeps possessions from turning into LA Fitness chaos. 

The numbers scream it. He’s tied with KD for the team’s highest usage (27 percent), leads Houston in OBPM (4.0), and sits on top of the roster in PER (22.5) and BPM (5.7).

More importantly, he’s been dishing out the most assists per game at 6.5, while also posting a team-high 14 two-point shot attempts per contest.

So yeah, Houston losing him for two weeks is brutal in the short term. But the next part matters more: there is no clean “Şengün replacement.”

Sure, Adams and Capela are more than capable of handling his traditional center duties. What they absolutely cannot do is fill in for a center who runs offense like a guard. To fill that void, it'll take an all-hands-on-deck approach from Houston's playmakers.

Which is exactly why it can help them.

Because “replacement by committee” isn’t just a survival tactic. It’s a developmental weapon the Rockets can't afford to waste.

The blessing in disguise is it’s Amen’s time

The Rockets have been a legit team this season. With over 40 percent of the season in the review-mirror, they’ve played like one: +9.7 net rating across 3,000+ possessions (122.1 ORTG, 112.4 DRTG). One of the best predictors of a title-contending team is being in the league’s top ten in both offensive and defensive Ratings. Houston has consistently been in the top four throughout the season.

Now here’s the fun part: in the minutes where Amen Thompson is on the floor and Şengün is off, Houston has been even better, with a +10.4 net rating across 800+ possessions, 117.6 ORTG, and 107.3 DRTG.

That’s not “small sample-size theater”, that’s a real chunk of the season. In that lineup environment, Amen is being asked to shoulder much more of the playmaking weight, and the Rockets are thriving anyway.

That’s the whole point. Because for all the talk about Houston’s ceiling, the real question is: can they survive when the opponent takes away their first option?

In April, teams don’t guard your sets. They guard your habits. The Rockets’ habit — especially without FVV — has been to lean on Şengün as the stabilizer. It has worked well enough… for the regular season.

This two-week window is a forced controlled burn: uncomfortable, chaotic, and exactly what you need before the real fire starts. 

Enter Amen Thompson and the Amen-Alpi symmetry.

The surface-level comparison doesn’t scream resemblance: Şengün is a half-court chess player. Amen is a chaos engine with rockets strapped to his calves.

But dig deeper into how they generate offense, you’ll find there’s a weird symmetry. 

Identical field goal percentage at 51 percent, with about 85 percent of their makes coming inside the paint. Their AST/TO ratio is basically the same, rounded out to 2.0 per game. Amen leads the Rockets in passes per game with 53, Şengün right behind him at 49. They’re also top-two in touches (around 73 per game), KD being a distant third with under 65.

That last part matters: the Rockets already trust Amen with involvement. He’s already doing the reps. He now has to consistently take ownership.

Ownership is different. Ownership is: this possession is yours — for good or bad — and if it ends in a turnover, we live with it. That’s the leap Şengün’s injury can force.

We’ve seen this exact “forced ownership” growth arc before. In Amen's preseason comp matrix, "The Barnes Fork" was the path where a defense-first, athletic wing gets a role expansion way sooner than anyone projected.

Scottie Barnes is the clean modern example. His usage climbed steadily early, but the real leap came when the role shifted: in the 2023-24 season, Barnes jumped to a 24.8 percent usage rate while averaging 6.1 assists, essentially getting promoted from lead supporting actor to full-time protagonist.

That’s the leap Houston should be hunting for with Amen. It’s less about volume and more about confidence and decisiveness. Attack the defense, touch the paint, make the read, live with the result.

This is not just a Space City homer talk. Some of the biggest national media authorities are also on board. Bill Simmons, while talking Rockets on his podcast, flat-out said Houston has “tilted a little too far” toward late-game Şengün, and “not far enough toward the ‘Amen Thompson can beat anybody off the dribble’ line."

He concluded by urging them to fix the calibration on that and delivered a warning shot to the Rockets:

“I think it’s really hard to run all your stuff through a center.” 

That wasn’t a Şengün diss. It was a playoff forecast.

In the postseason, when the opponent has time to study and focus only on your team, they know exactly when to load the floor, sit on your counters and make every pass a decision under stress. Houston’s way out of that is Amen. It has always been Amen.

Alpi’s injury doesn’t change that, it just accelerates the timeline.

The real goal isn’t more playmaking volume, but rather it’s more playmaking aggression. Houston doesn’t need Thompson to cosplay as VanVleet. They need him to become the most dangerous version of himself.

And yes, it will be messy. Let’s be honest: the next two weeks could absolutely be rocky. Houston might drop a couple of games that they should win. The offense might stall. KD might have to save them more often than you’d like.

That’s the price.

But if those losses buy you something real, a more confident and battle-tested Amen, then the seeding hit is worth it.

The Rockets aren’t trying to win January. They’re trying to be the last team standing in June.

That’s the payoff.