Fred VanVleet continues to be the Houston Rockets' leader according to rumors

Fred VanVleet changed the Houston Rockets.

The strategic ploy in signing him was obvious. Two summers ago, the Rockets had a surplus of young talent but a broken culture after three years of tanking. So, their priority was to fix their culture. They did that by signing hard-nosed veterans.

VanVleet has been their on-court leader since they signed him that fateful summer. It was a brilliant decision, but it came at a cost. VanVleet has been making roughly $45 million per season for the last two years.

Overpaying him was reasonable at the time. The Rockets needed to hit the cap floor anyway, and most of their key players were on rookie deals. The circumstances have changed. The Rockets will be negotiating new deals for their young players in the coming years.

It seems like VanVleet may accommodate that process.

Rockets' VanVleet expected to take discount

At least, that's what The Stein Line's Jake Fischer is reporting (subscription needed).

"(The Rockets are likely to) re-sign VanVleet to a new multiyear deal at a lower annual salary to create some useful wiggle room in relation to the league’s luxury tax aprons.”

-Jake Fischer

Beautiful. Credit VanVleet for doing the right thing. He's been overpaid on a per-production basis for the last two years, so taking a team-friendly extension would be another instance of VanVleet's leadership.

What should his new deal look like?

Rockets can't overpay for VanVleet

Way back in October, I predicted a four-year, $100 million deal for VanVleet. That still feels reasonable.

Statistically speaking, it's arguably still an overpay. VanVleet averaged 14.1 points per game with a True Shooting % (TS%) of just 51.5% in 2024-25. His 0.9 Box Plus/Minus (BPM) was his lowest mark since his third season in 2018-19 (0.5).

Some Rockets fans would see VanVleet walk on that basis. They're eager for one of Amen Thompson or Reed Sheppard to take the reins at point.

That's shortsighted thinking.

Thompson isn't a consistent enough threat in the halfcourt to be this team's full-time point guard yet. He should continue to get ball-handling reps as a point forward, but if the Rockets start him at the 1 next year, they will regress.

That's doubly true for Sheppard. He did not look ready to start for a playoff contender as a rookie. If he's a viable primary backup next year, that'll be an improvement.

Moreover, VanVleet could have a bounce-back season. The Rockets should have learned the lesson that one down year for an aging point guard doesn't mean their career is over. Chris Paul looked old when Houston traded him years ago, and quickly found the fountain of youth in Oklahoma City.

Finally, there's a component here that goes beyond the numbers. VanVleet is the team's leader. It would still be worth $25 million a season to keep him around for a while.

Where would the team's culture be without him?