Predicting Houston Rockets' Fred VanVleet's next contract

The Houston Rockets have a lot of decisions on the horizon.

Some of them are long-term decisions. Who is the franchise player? Which of these players are part of the long-term core? Will they trade for a superstar?

Yet, there are more pressing concerns. The Rockets have immediate decisions to make. Will they extend Alperen Sengun and/or Jalen Green? What will they do about Fred VanVleet?

It feels like VanVleet arrived yesterday. Yet, his team option comes into effect this summer. The Rockets could keep VanVleet on board on max money this summer, decline his option and negotiate a new deal, let him walk, or trade him at this year's deadline.

To hear VanVleet tell it, those last two options are not on the table. He says he's in Houston for the long haul.

If that's true, what should his next deal look like?

VanVleet is worth big money - but not this big

Let's assume that VanVleet stays in Houston for a while. For these purposes, it doesn't matter if the Rockets accept his team option this summer or not. Eventually, he's going to need a new deal.

What will his role look like? It depends on some of the macro decisions that the Rockets make moving forward. If they trade several young guys for a top-10 player, VanVleet could be entrenched as the starter for the next half-decade.

Otherwise, there should be a succession plan. VanVleet should eventually lose his starting spot to either Reed Sheppard or Amen Thompson. Still, he'll find a prominent role as long as he's on the Rockets. In a few years, VanVleet could be Houston's sixth man. With his ability to shoot and defend the point of attack, he can line up alongside virtually any guard in the league.

So, VanVleet's next deal will be worth starter-level money. Still, it can't be as expensive as his current pact. The Rockets can't build a contender with VanVleet making over $40 million a year.

Let's look at VanVleet's Box Plus/Minus (BPM) in 2023-24, and find some comparable players in his vicinity. VanVleet's BPM was 3.4. That's identical to Mike Conley and comparable to Derrick White (3.8).

Conley has to be the most underpaid player in the NBA. He's making roughly $10 million a season. Conley gave the Timberwolves comparable production to VanVleet at about 1/4th of the cost.

By contrast, White is fairly compensated. His deal is worth bout $30 million per season. That said, White is a bit more impactful than VanVleet at this stage of each man's career. He's worth a bit more than VanVleet.

Let's circle back to Conley. He's presumably taken a bit of a discount to help the Timberwolves build their roster. VanVleet could take a page out of his book, although we wouldn't expect him to take a deal that has writers calling him "the most underpaid player in the league".

So, let's use those two deals as precedents, and look for a compromise. VanVleet should take a bit less than White to be paid per his value without hamstringing the Rockets.

That's a decision that should satisfy both parties.

Prediction: 4-years, $100 million