It's been an odd season for the Houston Rockets.
If you were grading their season relative to expectations, you'd have to give it an A+. The Rockets are far ahead of expectations. Yet, paradoxically, their young players have had their share of struggles.
The sum is greater than the parts. Rockets fans should be happy about that. Individual grades between these players will vary, but the Rockets are firing on all cylinders as a team.
Here's how each "core 7" member measures up relative to expectations heading into the year.
Tari Eason: B+
Eason almost scored higher. If you feel he deserves an A grade, that's a reasonable position. His Box Plus/Minus (BPM) of 5.4 would rank in the league's top 15 if Eason had played enough games to qualify for the leaderboard.
Yet, that's part of the problem. Eason has appeared in 24 of the Rockets' 31 games. Coupled with his 31.5% shooting from three-point range, Eason's mark gets dragged down.
He's still having a fantastic season. Eason looks like a role player the Rockets will want to keep in town for years. Here's hoping he can stay healthy in 2025 - he should finish with an A+ if he can.
Jalen Green: C
By contrast, it's been a rough year for Green. Some would suggest that it's been his fourth consecutive rough year. Still, Green is unfortunately regressing in some areas.
His 32.6% shooting from long-range is the worst mark of his career despite a career-high 7.7 attempts per game. That inefficiency is reflected by Green's True Shooting % (TS%) of 53.5%. That's also the lowest mark of his career.
Sure, Green has had some explosive games. His ability to score is not on trial. His ability to score consistently is very much in question. If Green is only good for intermittent explosions, he's likely more of a sixth man in the NBA than a lead guard.
That's not what fans had in mind heading into 2024-25.
Alperen Sengun: B
If BPM were the sole measure, Sengun would get an A+. His BPM of 6.5 is 8th in the NBA.
Let's dig deeper. Sengun's dip in offensive efficiency has been well-documented. He's turning a corner recently, but his 63.8% shooting between 0 and 3 feet remains a career low. Most of Sengun's bread is buttered under the basket, so that's concerning.
Yet, those concerns are outweighed by the strides he's made on the defensive end. Sengun has had a revelatory season in that regard. If his shooting regresses to the mean by the end of the 2024-25 season, Sengun can creep into A territory. For now, he's got to be more efficient if he's going to definitively establish his place atop the Rockets' offensive hierarchy.
Reed Sheppard: C-
It feels wrong to grade Sheppard at all.
He's playing 11.9 minutes per night. That in its own right is a disappointment. Still, Sheppard's 27.9% shooting from three-point range has been downright heartbreaking.
Projection models expected this kid to hit 39% of his threes this year. Sheppard is likely to turn a corner at some point, but it would tale a miraculous run to get his percentage that high.
He looks tentative. Sheppard plays like he's terrified to make a mistake. Perhaps the Rockets should send him to the G-League for some extra seasoning. Once Sheppard gets his confidence up, he'll have a chance to improve on this grade.
Jabari Smith Jr.: B-
Smith Jr. has had an up-and-down season. A surface-level look at the stats suggests that he's stagnated. He's averaging 12.1 points and 6.8 rebounds while shooting 35.1% from deep. Last year, he averaged 13.7 points, 8.1 rebounds and shot 36.3% from three-point range.
An appeal to the eye test saves Smith Jr.'s season. He's improved significantly as a weakside rim protector. He's only increased his blocks per game from 0.8 to 1.0, but Smith Jr. finds himself in the right position to alter shots on a more regular basis.
It's also worth noting a statistical quirk. Smith Jr. was dreadful to start the season, and he's been tremendous since. In the aggregate, that makes for a slight statistical decline, but Smith Jr. is currently playing at the highest level he's reached in the NBA.
Amen Thompson: B+
The most notable improvement in Thompson's game has been his shooting. As a rookie, he shot 13.8% from three-point range, and this year he's hitting 26.8%. If we assume continued linear progression, Thompson will be the best shooter in the NBA by year four.
Jokes aside, Thompson doesn't need to be a sniper. He does need to be a thread to hit wide open threes to avoid getting played off the floor in the postseason. He's well on his way to hitting that mark.
Otherwise, Thompson has solidly progressed towards being one of the best defensive wings in the NBA. The only nit to pick would be that he hasn't made tremendous progress as a halfcourt creator. It's still difficult to project whether Thompson will develop into a viable point guard.
Still, it's clear that he's going to be a winning player.
Cam Whitmore: C
A few weeks ago, Whitmore could have received an F. He couldn't hit the broad side of a barn, and he couldn't crack Ime Udoka's rotation as a result.
Eason's injuries have necessitated an increased role for Whitmore. He's mostly made good on it. Whitmore is still among the least willing passers in the league, and he's a spotty defender:
But dear God, can this kid score the basketball. Whitmore is inconsistent, but if he continues down the path he's been on recently, he'll have a successful season.
More importantly, he'll contribute to the Rockets' (continuing) success.