Heat have made one fatal mistake in their attempt to snatch Kevin Durant from Rockets

As the Houston Rockets brought in Kevin Durant in a blockbuster trade this offseason, the organization knew that they were taking a measured risk in attempting to extend the superstar beyond this season.

The Miami Heat, who missed out on Durant in the original trade sweepstakes and have been rumored to be eyeing him if he gets to free agency next offseason, have forgotten that cap space no longer has the same sway it used to in modern free agency.

Therefore, given the recent trends on the open market across the league in recent seasons, the overwhelmingly most likely outcome remains that Durant will re-sign in Houston, meaning that Miami could be laboring in vain.

The Miami Heat have almost no chance to snatch Kevin Durant in free agency

Durant, who is approaching age 37 as the season begins, will also be entering the final year of a four-year, $194 million extension he originally signed with the Brooklyn Nets.

Now, as the Rockets prepare to reformulate their offensive structure around the superstar scorer, their next major organizational priority is to negotiate a below-max extension for Durant following their extension of soon-to-be restricted free agent Tari Eason.

At the same time, however, the Heat have been doing their best to clear out cap space for next offseason, presumably with the intention of pursuing a star such as Durant (who they have had public interest in in the past).

On one hand, such a scenario, in which Miami is able to outbid Houston next offseason for Durant's services, would be a complete disaster for the Rockets. In trading for Durant, Houston made a stark move away from their patient and careful plan to build a contender, and losing that player after one season would set them back significantly.

On the other hand, however, the free agent landscape has changed so much in recent years that, frankly, the Rockets do not have much to worry about. Just this past offseason, a number of stars, including Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, signed extensions with their organizations rather than test the open market in an effort secure their paydays with less risk.

For Durant, who is certainly nearing the final stages of his career, it is likely that signing an extension with Houston, even if its for less than the max, would be the safer bet. If the Rockets can prove that they can contend for a championship this season, there would be almost no reason for Durant to test the open market, and Miami could be left in the dust.