Predicting what the Houston Rockets will do this summer is an exercise in futility.
Seriously - good luck. The Rockets are young, so they could justify staying the course. They're good, so they could justify a blockbuster trade. They have an excess of assets, but that doesn't mean they have to spend them.
Their future is bright, but it's uncertain. It's hard to even ascertain what they'll do in the draft. The Rockets should be receiving a lottery pick from the Suns. They could include that pick in a win-now trade, or they could add another intriguing prospect to their arsenal.
That's what ESPN has them doing in their latest mock draft.
Rockets select point guard in latest mock draft
They've got the Rockets taking a look at Oklahoma's Jeremiah Fears with the 11th overall pick.
If you're a regular reader, you know SpaceCityScoop has covered Fears. Let's take a fresh look at him - but first, let's take a quick refresher.
Fears is an athletic floor general who can score (in theory) at all three levels. He's a crafty playmaker. The most projectable high usage role for Fears in the NBA would have him running the pick-and-roll, collapsing the defense and either attempting a layup or kicking the ball to the open man.
In other words, Fears looks like a primary playmaker. He has star potential at the NBA level.
Is he the right pick for the Rockets?
Rockets should pass on Fears
I don't see it.
Fears is shooting 28.3% from downtown this season. He could be a highly effective offensive player in the NBA even if he never develops a reliable three-ball:
But not next to Amen Thompson and Alperen Sengun.
The Rockets have enough spacing issues. If anything, they'll likely consider trading a talented young player or two if they can't bump up their three-point percentages. Acquiring another young player with this overlapping weakness feels like malpractice.
Sure, you can make the case. One could argue that the Rockets should take whoever they think has the highest upside. It's a valid philosophy, but when you've been farming lottery picks like the Rockets, it gets complicated - and quickly.
The team has barely been able to find time for Reed Sheppard this year, and shooting was supposed to be his signature skill. Where will the minutes come for Fears? How likely is it that the team can develop these guys to reach their potential if they don't put them on the floor?
I'd simply grab Liam McNeeley at 11th. He's a big wing who can defend well enough to earn Ime Udoka's trust. His shooting efficiency has taken a hit lately, but McNeeley still profiles as a good shooter long-term.
Meanwhile, Jase Richarson goes one spot after Fears in this mock draft. He is arguably the best shooter in this draft. Richardson doesn't have Fears' creation juice, but again, it's hard to imagine Fears getting opportunities to create.
If the Rockets are going to use this pick, they should use it on someone they believe will at least be part of the rotation within the next couple of years. If the pick makes a big leap, sure, they should draft for upside. As long as they're in the 10th to 14th range, fit should be a consideration. Here's hoping the front office agrees:
But who knows?