1 Critical decision that could make-or-break the Rockets' future

The Houston Rockets built their current roster through the draft. For years, they deliberately lost to maximize their lottery odds. Now, they have a cache of talented young players.

The draft is a gamble. Gambling is addictive. Once a team starts building through the draft, fans want them to continue down that path. Sure, the Rockets have a surplus of young talent. What if that next prospect was the guy who'd have changed everything?

That's a concern for Rockets fans at the moment. It seems that Bleacher Report shares that concern.

They just named the Rockets' abandoning their pursuit of Cooper Flagg as a reason to hate their offseason.

Did the Rockets make a huge mistake?

"This is the closest we can come to anything worth hating for the Rockets.

When a team offers you four first-round assets for two, which Brooklyn did to get control of its 2025 and 2026 first-rounders back, you should probably say yes. And it's hardly the worst idea to short the mid- and long-term future of the capped-out and inflexible Phoenix Suns.

But what if that 2025 pick turns into Cooper Flagg?"

-Grant Hughes, Bleacher Report

Firstly, let's acknowledge that Hughes doesn't hate the move. He's confined by the format of the article. He's compelled to find a reason to hate every team's summer.

Frankly, his take on the Rockets' offseason deal with the Nets is similar to our take. It was arguably an opportunity that Rafael Stone could not resist. Objectively speaking, he found surplus value - 4 is greater than 2.

Yet, the NBA is not a quantity game. One player can be worth more than the rest of your roster combined.

What if the Rockets gave up Flagg?

The Rockets' rebuild is complicated

Let's circle back to that idea of the draft as a gamble.

Flagg looks incredible. He's likely a franchise-changing talent. As a 6'9" forward with top-notch athleticism and prodigious defensive instincts, he should be an elite two-way force.

Let's look at the prospects who have come into the league since the Rockets started tanking. Cade Cunningham is an archetypical plus-sized point guard. Everyone is looking for that 6'7" playmaker who can orchestrate the offense without giving up size mismatches.

Although, a 6'10" three-level scorer has his own appeal. The 2022 Draft didn't have a clear top prospect, but Paolo Banchero was a worthy top pick.

By contrast, the entire world knew who'd be picked first in 2023. The Rockets likely scheduled their tank job around Victor Wembanyama. What's the commonality between all three of those players?

For our purposes, it's that none of them are Houstoh Rockets.

The point being? Even if the Nets win 0 games in 2024-25, the odds of them sending Flagg to Houston are slim. That's before considering that the Nets were unlikely to tank if the Rockets didn't send them their picks back. Say the Nets won 30 games in 2024-25. In that event, the Rockets would have needed a near-miracle for the pick to land in the top spot.

Besides, the Rockets still have the picks to build through the draft if they want - in fact, they've got more picks. Rest assured that between now and 2029, a prospect who's currently working up the nerve to ask his crush to the junior high prom will emerge as a potential franchise player.

Although, the Rockets likely won't be in a position to draft him. The deal with the Nets likely signals that they're done building through the draft. The next move for Stone will be to flip the surplus of assets he's collected for a superstar. That will be a career-defining decision.

None of which is to say that the Rockets didn't make a mistake. It's debatable. There's a world where the Nets don't trade Mijkal Bridges, try to compete in 2024-25, and an injury turns a mediocre team worse.

We won't know that world. We only know this one:

All we can do is see how it shakes out.