Have the Houston Rockets found their franchise player?

The Houston Rockets are loaded with young talent. Is that enough?

Consider this: You've got 100 pennies. That's equivalent to a dollar. That's just as good as having a dollar, right?

Well, a single coin is a lot easier to carry. Sure, you could take those pennies to the bank and they'd give you a dollar for them. How likely is that to ever be worth your time? What are you going to do with all of these pennies?

The Rockets have a hundred pennies. Do they have a dollar?

Who's "the guy" in Houston?

The analogy is imperfect.

These players are not pennies - they're good. The Rockets have a surplus of quality young players who should be starting-caliber if they aren't already.

We're just not sure if any of them are a complete dollar, either. There's no "stop the presses - we found our man!" guy on this Rockets team - at least, in our opinion.

Some will beg to differ - and they may do it in Turkish. There's a prominent community that would insist that Alperen Sengun is the future of the Rockets. To be sure, some numbers validate that perspective.

As a third-year player in 2023-24, Sengun had a Box Plus/Minus of 4.9. For context, that's higher than Giannis Antetokoumnpo (2.1), Jayson Tatum (4.0) Anthony Edwards (1.0) and it's the same as Joel Embiid (4.9) in their third seasons.

That bodes well. Still, you can't tell an entire basketball story with numbers. Sengun is a big man with a subpar jumper and defensive flaws. That's not an archetype with a great track record in the NBA.

Some will accuse us of "archetype analysis" at this juncture. We'll touch on that later. FIrst, let's talk about a player with an entirely different archetype.

Could Amen Thompson be the Rockets' franchise player?

Can the Rockets build around Thompson?

Thompson's BPM projection is similarly optimistic.

Let's compare his rookie-year BPM of 1.8 to that same group of players. It's higher than Antetokoumnpo (-2.5), Tatum (1.2), Anthony Edwards (-2.1), and far lower than Embiid (4.5).

We start to see some flaws in this very rudimentary methodology. Embiid was a clear-cut franchise player by year one. It speaks to the multiplicity of paths that players take to get to that point.

For example, take Antetokoumpo. We've looked at his rookie BPM and his third-year BPM. In his fourth season, Antetokoumpo exploded with a whopping BPM of 7.3.

Do the Rockets have a fourth-year player on the cusp of a breakout?

It was Green...it was always Green?

We won't get into the stats with Jalen Green. His BPM has been on a trajectory that doesn't typically reflect a long-term starter in the NBA.

Yet, he also has the profile of a player who takes a bit longer to get it together. Green is an outlier athlete. His first step and ability to relocate may be the best in the NBA. He's used that 100th-percentile athleticism to dominate the competition at every other level.

In the NBA, more than elite athleticism is needed. It's abundant. Sure, he arguably has the quickest first step in the league. De'Aaron Fox is right there, and he's got far superior passing vision, ball-handling, and overall understanding of the game.

In 2023-24, Green didn't take the statistical leap a lot of fans were hoping for. He did show an improved understanding of basketball. His defensive instincts were sharper, his passing reads improved, and he was more consistently engaged.

Unlike Sengun and Thompson, Green doesn't have the same type of "fatal flaw" that's associated with the former duo's respective archetypes.

OK, fine: it's time to have that discussion.

What is an archetype? The dictionary definition is "a very typical example of a person or thing". So, Sengun and Thompson fit particular archetypical definitions because they have strengths and flaws - not just on paper, but on the basketball floor.

Put differently, teams with star guards won't relentlessly hunt Sengun in the pick-and-roll on paper come playoff time. They won't sag off of Thompson and dare him to shoot on paper. These are real things that will happen on real basketball floors. That's the reason we group them into an archetype, and measure the success of those archetypes in the past.

That's not to say neither of them could be Houston's franchise player. The Bucks built a title-winner around Antetokoumnpo by surrounding him with four-out spacing. The Nuggets mitigated Jokic's limitations by finding a versatile defensive forward and leaning into size.

Yet, Antetkoumnpo is about 5 inches taller than Thompson. Jokic is a better shooter than Sengun. This gets complicated quickly.

We've even gone on something of a tangent trying to unravel it all. Let's circle back - there's no particular archetypical limitation in Green's game. He simply hasn't been very good so far.

Finally, Jabari Smith Jr. is the dark horse. As a 6'11" shooter and defender, he's a highly portable player. So far, he hasn't shown much ability to create his own shot, although it's hard to contest his midrange jumper. Could the Rockets build an offense around that simple but effective action?

Our conclusion isn't very satisfying - we don't have a conclusion. For our money, the Rockets are most likely to trade for the best player on their roster. After that, they'll build a roster that offsets either Sengun or Thompson's limitations. Whichever one they choose will probably depend on who compliments the star they trade for.

We're not entirely out on Green, but three years of (mostly) subpar production doesn't engender confidence. If he does start to ascend next season, it would make life easier for the Rockets -

We just wouldn't bet our bottom dollar on it.