Predicting Tari Eason's next contract with the Rockets

The Houston Rockets just re-signed Jabari Smith Jr.

It's a good contract. Smith's long-term deal has an average annual value (AAV) of $24.5 million per season. That's a mild overpay based on his current production, but if we bake potential into the number, it looks right.

That said, he's not the only wing the Rockets drafted in 2022 - arguably, he's not even the most important one. Smith Jr. has a new contract.

What about Tari Eason?

Rockets' young wing still needs to get paid

Eason's deal could come at any moment. Even as I write this, I risk wasting time. Eason's deal could come to fruition before this is published.

If you're reading this, that did not happen.

So, what should happen? Smith Jr. is making $24.5 million a season. According to Box Plus/Minus (BPM), Eason should be in line for (significantly) more.

Across three seasons, Smith Jr. has a BPM of -1.7. Granted, that includes a gruesome -3.7 mark as a rookie, but even last year's -0.7 mark is uninspiring.

By contrast, Eason's career mark of 0.8 is much stronger. He also struggled as a rookie on a tanking team, so we should take last year's 3.6 BPM as a better representation. That puts Eason in elite territory.

In particular, Eason impacts the game as a defensive event creator. His 3.3 Steal Percentage would have ranked third in the NBA last year if he'd met the minimal games required threshold.

That's exactly why the Rockets shouldn't spend too much on him.

Eason needs to work on durability

Last year, Eason suited up for 57 games. That's an acceptable number, but it's less than ideal when he played in just 22 during his sophomore year. We've now got two seasons' worth of data to suggest that Eason is injury-prone.

Ideally, he'll shake that reputation. The Rockets were likely easing him back into competition last year. With another summer's worth of rehabilitation, Eason could be ready to go:

But that's a murky hypothetical to make a significant bet on.

Perhaps the answer is to avoid an extension for now. If Eason is generally available next year, he could earn a significant deal. If he's not, the Rockets might not be willing to offer much. Each side could see some benefit in holding out on negotiations.

That said, let's assume the deal gets worked out soon. If so, Eason will have to understand that his injuries have cost him. The Rockets will have to understand that he's still an immensely valuable player. So, it could make sense to pay Eason reasonable money on a shorter deal than Smith Jr. How about a four-year contract with an AAV of $18 million?

Prediction: 4-years, $72 million