Rockets make cautiously optimistic investment by re-signing Jabari Smith Jr.

The Houston Rockets have had a busy summer. They just made another in a string of massive decisions.

Jabari Smith Jr. isn't going anywhere anytime soon. The Rockets agreed to a 5-year, $122 million deal with the young forward.

There's been ample speculation about how Smith Jr.'s next deal might look. There has even been concern that he'd seek maximum money. Smith Jr. has flashed the potential to be an instrumental player, but he's not been worth that type of contract.

This isn't a max deal - not even close. That said, it is a substantial investment.

Is Smith Jr. worth it?

Rockets' Smith Jr. must earn his keep

Strictly speaking, no.

Smith Jr.'s production through three NBA seasons has not merited this $24.5 million average annual value (AAV). If that sounds harsh, it's simply the truth. Smith Jr.'s career-best Box Plus/Minus (BPM) so far came in his sophomore season at -0.4.

If production isn't your bag, and you're more of an eye test person, this is still a hefty sum for Smith Jr. Coming into the league, he was billed as a 6'11" three-and-D wing. So far, his shooting has been inconsistent. His defense is solid, but unexceptional

That said, every NBA deal can't be viewed through the lens of a player's current level. Smith Jr. is just 22 years old. He's got ample potential to improve his game. If he can make strides as a player, he can make good on this deal. So let's pose the question in no uncertain terms:

How does he do that?

Smith Jr. has obvious areas for growth

Remember that career-best BPM?

It's no coincidence that it coincided with Smith Jr.'s best three-point shooting season. He connected on 36.3% of his triples that year. If Smith Jr. could maintain that level - or preferably, exceed it - he'd be on his way to earning this deal.

Defensively, he may be a finished product. Smith Jr. is consistently effortful, and he has good awareness. The issue is that he's just not as quick-footed as he appeared against college competition. Smith Jr. can guard most wings, but he's not the switch-everything monster Rockets fans were hoping for.

On that note, some have outsized expectations for him on offense as well. They'd like the Rockets to look for Smith Jr. in the midrange more often. Perhaps that would be wise, but realistically, his value to this offense will be tethered to his three-point efficiency:

If he can knock down his threes, he'll be worth this money - and then some.