Rockets' 2024-25 success paints clear picture of Jalen Green's future

Houston Rockets fans have a lot to be excited about.

Sure, they're on a two-game losing streak. Let's take a macro view. At 15-8, the Rockets have surpassed expectations in 2024-25.

Alperen Sengun's offensive efficiency ought to regress to the mean. Amen Thompson has room to grow as a half-court scorer. This is one of the most exciting teams in the NBA.

Astute readers have noticed that Jalen Green hasn't been mentioned yet. Unlike other young players on this roster, he hasn't given Rockets fans much to be excited about:

Unless they believe the team will be able to move off of his contract.

Rockets should give up on Green

Green is shooting 39.6% on 16.1 field goal attempts per game. He's connecting on 32.4% of his 7.7 three-point attempts per contest. Green's True Shooting % (TS%) of 52.7% is buoyed by a career-best 86.1% mark from the free throw line. When he only attempts 4.4 free throws per game, that isn't much to get worked up about.

Drawing fouls is a vital skill for a star guard. That's one of Green's issues. His inability to add muscle to his frame has compromised his finishing ability. Green does hit 68.4% of his shots between 0-3 feet - perhaps the most encouraging stat in his profile. Unfortunately, only 21.3% of his field goals come from that range.

Because of his lethal first step, most of the looks Green gets at the rim are wide-open. He doesn't need to finish through contact if he beats every defender to the basket. If there is a defender present, Green struggles: he may not be able to get a decent shot off, and if he doesn't, he's unlikely to draw the foul.

All of which could be moot if Green was an efficient three-point shooter. To reiterate: he's hitting 32.4% of his threes. Defenses are happy to watch him shoot a three. For a guard with below-average strength, that's a problem. Green doesn't have a signature method of making defenses pay.

That's why the Rockets will likely have to pay (in assets) to move on from him.

Rockets need to shop Green

It's unlikely to happen this season. Green's poison pill provision will make it difficult to trade him by this year's deadline. Next summer, it shouldn't be as much of an issue.

Green won't headline a return for a star player. Rival front offices have access to data - they know his play has been poor. It feels likely that Houston will attach Cam Whitmore - currently a G-League resident - and several unprotected first-round picks to Green's deal to bring in a star.

Who should they look at? It depends on your perspective. Devin Booker could slide directly into Green's role and elevate the team. That said, it feels unlikely that the Suns will put him on the market this summer.

De'Aaron Fox feels like a more plausible target. In some respects, he's not the optimal one. Fox is a suspect shooter, so he doesn't fix the Rockets' biggest weakness. That said, the organization could look to double down on strengths. Fox is perenially near the top of the league in steals per game, and he's a blur in transition.

Even Zach LaVine would make the Rockets considerably stronger. He's having a resurgent season, and he's the type of shooter/shot creator hybrid that feels ideal next to Alperen Sengun. The Bulls could be amendable to a straight Green-for-LaVine swap if they're still struggling to find a taker for him heading into the summer.

It's also possible that a star guard will find his way to the market that nobody is anticipating yet. The broader point is that it's time for the Rockets to divorce from Green. Even if he has any remaining star potential, he isn't likely to realize it on this team. It's time to trade him as soon as it's convenient:

That'll be another reason for Rockets fans to get excited.